The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 57-15 SU and 42-28-2 ATS (60%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-9 at UTA)

* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the MEM-CHI series, but did lose last time
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-5.5 at CHI)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 241-254 SU and 220-269-6 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4.5 at LAL)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 68-34 SU and 60-38-4 ATS (61.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs POR), SAN ANTONIO (+3 vs GSW)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DETROIT, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MILWAUKEE ML, CHICAGO ML, HOUSTON ML, LA LAKERS ML 

These last four NBA betting trend systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-UTA, MEM-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-HOU
UNDER – NYK-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DET-ORL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYK-UTA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 68-34 SU and 60-38-4 ATS (61.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/23: HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs. POR)

11/23: SAN ANTONIO vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+3 vs. GSW)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 27-38 SU BUT 37-28-2 ATS (56.9%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
11/23: PORTLAND at Houston
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+12.5 at HOU) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 37-34 SU and 42-28-1 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the last two seasons.
11/23: HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs. POR) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 28-18 SU and 28-16-2 ATS (63.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/23: HOUSTON vs. Portland
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs POR) 

* UNDER the total was 105-74-1 (58.7%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/23: UNDER the total in MILWAUKEE-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-MIL (o/u at 224.5) 

* OVER the total was 82-69 (54.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/23: OVER the total in PORTLAND-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-HOU (o/u at 227.5)

* OVER the total was 84-57 (59.6%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.

11/23: OVER the total in HOUSTON-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-HOU (o/u at 227.5) 

* OVER the total was 36-27 (57.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
11/23: OVER the total in HOUSTON-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-HOU (o/u at 227.5)

* OVER the total was 47-37 (56%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/23: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-LAL (o/u at 235) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 90-77 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 162-140 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-167 (58%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): POR-HOU (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 204-118 SU but 144-172-6 ATS (45.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-9 at UTA) 

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 65-48 SU and 63-48-2 ATS (56.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-9 at UTA)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 114-118 SU but 119-98-5 ATS (54.8%), including 85-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9 vs. NYK)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 271-227 (54.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-SAS (o/u at 227.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 241-254 SU and 220-269-6 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4.5 at LAL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 258-245 SU and 225-265-11 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at MIL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 132-156 SU and 130-151-7 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at MIL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 123-91 SU and 120-90-4 ATS (57.1%) since 2021. (HOU 11/23)
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs. POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 29-59 SU but 47-41 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH (+9 vs. NYK) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 57-15 SU and 42-28-2 ATS (60%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK (-9 at UTA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (169-188 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (226-220 ATS, 50.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH (+9 vs. NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Chicago +5.5 (+4.1)
2. Detroit +9.5 (+3.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Milwaukee -7.5 (+1.9)
2. Golden State -3 (+1.7)
3. New York -8.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Utah +8.5 (+2.8)
2. Detroit +9.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Memphis -5.5 (+1.7)
2. Golden State -3 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-CHI OVER 241 (+2.5)
2. GSW-SAN OVER 228 (+1.3)

Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-HOU UNDER 229 (-7.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Chicago +5.5 (+4.4)
2. Detroit +9.5 (+4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Milwaukee -7.5 (+5.7)
2. New York -8.5 (+3.3)
3. Houston -13 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-CHI OVER 241 (+3.8) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-HOU UNDER 229 (-9.2)
2. DEN-LAL UNDER 235 (-1.2) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(553) NEW YORK at (554) UTAH
* UTAH is 5-1 ATS in last six games versus New York when playing at home
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS 

(555) DETROIT at (556) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the DET-ORL  series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(557) CHARLOTTE at (558) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 9-2 in the CHA-MIL series since 2022, but did lose a week ago
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(559) MEMPHIS at (560) CHICAGO
* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the MEM-CHI series, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(561) PORTLAND at (562) HOUSTON
* Favorites are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the POR-HOU series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(565) DENVER at (566) LA LAKERS
* DENVER has won five of the last six ATS in the series with LAL
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR