The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 44-19 SU and 39-21-3 ATS (65%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs. OKC) 

*NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 247-131 SU but just 160-206-12 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-12 vs. NOP) 

*NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 161-60 SU and 122-96-3 ATS (56%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-1 at CLE) 

* Over the total is on a 12-1 run in the DAL-POR series at Portland dating back to 2017
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in DAL-POR (o/u at 227.5)

* Under the total is 8-0-1 in the DEN-LAC series in Los Angeles since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in DEN-LAC (o/u at 223.5) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MIAMI, DALLAS, SAN ANTONIO, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, BOSTON, UTAH, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, BOSTON, MIAMI, SAN ANTONIO 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MEMPHIS ML, TORONTO ML, NEW YORK ML, PORTLAND ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-MEM, MIA-TOR, NOP-NYK, OKC-HOU, LAL-UTA, DAL-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-TOR, NOP-NYK, LAL-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-MEM 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 183-123 SU and 176-122 ATS (59.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
12/1: HOUSTON vs. Oklahoma City
12/1: DENVER at La Clippers
12/1: SAN ANTONIO at Sacramento
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs. OKC), DENVER (-3 at LAC), SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at SAC)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 63-29 SU and 56-34-2 ATS (62.2%) hosting road teams on OneDayRest over the last three seasons.
12/1: HOUSTON vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs. OKC) 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 44-19 SU and 39-21-3 ATS (65%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/1: HOUSTON vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs. OKC)

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 25-11 SU and 22-7-7 ATS (75.9%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/1: HOUSTON vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 vs. OKC) 

* OVER the total was 108-76 (59%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
12/1: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-HOUSTON
12/1: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-DENVER
12/1: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-SAN ANTONIO
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-HOU (o/u at 220.5), DEN-LAC (o/u at 223.5), SAS-SAC (o/u at 225.5) 

* Over the total was 53-39 (57.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/1: OVER the total in HOUSTON-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-HOU (o/u at 220.5) 

* PORTLAND is 26-61 SU and 32-55 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
12/1: Fade PORTLAND vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+7 vs. DAL) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 185-35 SU but just 100-117-3 ATS (46.1%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-12 vs. NOP)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-77 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-141 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 233-172 (57.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-NYK (o/u at 224.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 205-121 SU, but 145-175-6 ATS (45.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-1 at CLE)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 247-131 SU but just 160-206-12 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-12 vs. NOP) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 273-227 (54.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-HOU (o/u at 220.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 243-257 SU and 222-272-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-6.5 at BKN)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 263-247 SU and 229-268-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-1 at CLE), MIAMI (-4.5 at TOR) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 134-158 SU and 132-153-7 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last 6 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-1 at CLE), MIAMI (-4.5 at TOR) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 125-93 SU and 122-92-4 ATS (57%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-7 at POR)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 161-60 SU and 122-96-3 ATS (56%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-1 at CLE)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.3% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (172-190 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (229-222 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+12 at NYK)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of Seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 203-249-2 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-112 SU and 59-75-4 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-1 at CLE), NEW ORLEANS (+12 at NYK) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +1.5 (+4.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+1.6)
3. UTAH +7.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -4.5 (+2.5)
2. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+1.9)
3. BOSTON -1 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +1.5 (+3.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+2.8)
3. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+2.1)
2. DALLAS -7 (+0.7)
3. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-MEM OVER 244 (+2.3)
2. ORL-BKN OVER 206.5 (+2.1)
3. DAL-POR OVER 227.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-LAC UNDER 223.5 (-3.2)
2. NOP-NYK UNDER 224.5 (-2.5)
3. BOS-CLE UNDER 232.5 (-1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+4.1)
2. HOUSTON +1.5 (+3.1)
3. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -6.5 (+2.2)
2(tie). BOSTON -1 (+1.8)
MIAMI -4.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-BKN OVER 206.5 (+5.5)
2. IND-MEM OVER 244 (+4.1)
3. BOS-CLE OVER 232.5 (+4.0) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-LAC UNDER 223.5 (-2.4)
2. NOP-NYK UNDER 224.5 (-2.0) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) ORLANDO at (532) BROOKLYN
* Favorites have won eight straight ATS in the ORL-BKN series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(533) INDIANA at (534) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS has won all six meetings with IND since 2022
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS 

(535) BOSTON at (536) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are on a 10-2-1 ATS run in the BOS-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS 

(539) NEW ORLEANS at (540) NEW YORK
* NEW ORLEANS is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with nonconference foe NYK
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS 

(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) HOUSTON
* Under the total has converted in six straight meetings between OKC and HOU in Houston
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(543) LA LAKERS at (544) UTAH
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the LAL-UTA series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(545) DALLAS at (546) PORTLAND
* Favorites have covered nine of the last 10 in the DAL-POR series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

* Over the total is on a 12-1 run in the series at Portland dating back to 2017
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(547) SAN ANTONIO at (548) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between SAS and SAC in Sacramento
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(549) DENVER at (550) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 8-0-1 in the DEN-LAC series in Los Angeles since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

* Underdogs are 8-1 in the last nine of the DEN-LAC series in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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