Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
*NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 70-25 SU and 61-33-1 ATS (64.9%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2 at CHI)
* UTAH is 12-17 SU but 21-8 ATS in its last 29 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12 at SAC)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 45-19 SU and 40-21-3 ATS (65.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 vs HOU)
*NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 136-51 SU and 113-72-2 ATS (61.1%) in their last 187 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1 vs. MIN)
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of DEN-ATL h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4 point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, PHOENIX, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHARLOTTE, PHOENIX, UTAH, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, PHOENIX, MEMPHIS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on MONEY LINE wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, DENVER ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-BKN, CLE-MIA, MEM-WSH, NOP-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for a number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHI, DEN-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-SAS
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 185-124 SU and 178-123 ATS (59.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
12/8: BROOKLYN vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs MIL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 64-29 SU and 57-34-2 ATS (62.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
12/8: BROOKLYN vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs. MIL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 37-17 SU and 34-18-2 ATS (65.4%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
12/8: BROOKLYN vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+5.5 vs. MIL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 45-19 SU and 40-21-3 ATS (65.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/8: LA CLIPPERS vs. Houston
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 vs. HOU)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 70-36 SU and 62-40-4 ATS (60.8%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
12/8: MIAMI vs. Cleveland
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3 vs CLE)
12/8: WASHINGTON vs. Memphis
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+12 vs. MEM)
* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 28-38 SU but 38-28-2 ATS (57.6%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
12/8: MEMPHIS at Washington
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-12 at WSH)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 28-20 SU and 29-17-2 ATS (63%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
12/8: WASHINGTON vs. Memphis
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+12 vs. MEM)
12/8: SAN ANTONIO vs. New Orleans
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs. NOP)
* Over the total was 111-76 (59.4%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
12/8: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-BKN (o/u at 216.5)
* Under the total was 107-77-1 (58.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/8: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-GSW (o/u at 217)
* Over the total was 85-71 (54.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
12/8: Over the total in MEMPHIS-WASHINGTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-WSH (o/u at 240.5)
12/8: Over the total in PHOENIX-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-ORL (o/u at 209.5)
* Over the total was 54-39 (58.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/8: Over the total in BROOKLYN-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-BKN (o/u at 216.5)
* Over the total was 38-28 (57.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
12/8: Over the total in MIAMI-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 223)
12/8: Over the total in WASHINGTON-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-WSH (o/u at 240.5)
* Over the total was 48-39 (55.2%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/8: Over the total in INDIANA-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-IND (o/u at 221)
12/8: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-SAS (o/u at 226.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* DENVER is on a 2-11 ATS skid (6-7 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
12/8: Fade DENVER at Atlanta
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+3 at ATL)
* HOUSTON is 9-30 SU and 12-27 ATS in its last 39 3rd Straight Road games
12/8: Fade HOUSTON at LA Clippers
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-3.5 at LAC)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 34-37 SU and 24-46-1 ATS skid in the last 71 when playing on standard One Day Rest
12/8: Fade MILWAUKEE at Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at BKN)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 36-27 SU and 40-23 ATS in its last 63 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
12/8: PHILADELPHIA at Chicago
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2 at CHI)
* UTAH is 12-17 SU but 21-8 ATS in its last 29 3rd Straight Road games
12/8: UTAH at Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12 at SAC)
* UTAH is on a 41-20 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
12/8: Over the total in UTAH-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAC (o/u at 233)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 70-25 SU and 61-33-1 ATS (64.9%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2 at CHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 188-36 SU but just 103-118-3 ATS (46.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-12 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 166-143 (53.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 235-173 (57.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-IND (o/u at 221), MEM-WSH (o/u at 240.5), UTA-SAC (o/u at 233)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 207-121 SU, but 146-176-6 ATS (45.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-12 vs. UTA)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 136-82 SU but 97-117-4 ATS (45.3%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 83-104 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs. NOP)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 136-51 SU and 113-72-2 ATS (61.1%) in their last 187 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1 vs. MIN)
Quality of wins/losses can matter
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 250-131 SU but just 163-206-12 ATS (44.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3 vs. DEN)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 260-204 SU but 201-251-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO (-12 vs. UTA), WASHINGTON (+12 vs. MEM)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 249-262 SU and 227-278-6 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-11 vs. CHA)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 270-251 SU and 234-274-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+2 vs. PHI)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 165-61 SU and 124-99-3 ATS (55.6%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-11 vs. CHA), LA LAKERS (-8.5 vs. POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 205-256-2 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-115 SU and 59-78-4 ATS (43.1%).
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+11 at IND)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+3.2)
2. MIAMI +3 (+0.8)
3. CHICAGO +2 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+5.0)
2. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+1.5)
3. ATLANTA -2.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +12 (+5.3)
2. CHICAGO +2 (+2.1)
3. MIAMI +3 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+6.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE -1 (+3.6)
3. SACRAMENTO -12 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-MIL OVER 216.5 (+3.6)
2. CLE-MIA OVER 223 (+1.4)
3. MEM-WSH OVER 240.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-GSW UNDER 217 (-3.2)
2. PHX-ORL UNDER 210 (-3.1)
3. NOP-SAS UNDER 226.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+4.5)
2. MIAMI +3 (+1.2)
3. MINNESOTA +1 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+3.1)
2. INDIANA -11 (+1.9)
3. LA LAKERS -8.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-BKN OVER 216.5 (+3.7)
2. PHX-ORL OVER 210 (+3.2)
3. CLE-MIA OVER 223 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-SAS UNDER 226.5 (-5.7)
2(tie). DEN-ATL UNDER 242.5 (-2.0)
HOU-LAC UNDER 214 (-2.0)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) PHILADELPHIA at (502) CHICAGO
* Under the total has converted in the last five matchups between PHI and CHI
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(507) DENVER at (508) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of DEN-ATL series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
* DENVER is 6-1 ATS in the last seven versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(511) PHOENIX at (512) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 6-0 ATS in the last six matchups with PHX
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(513) MEMPHIS at (514) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the MEM-WSH series at Washington
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(517) MINNESOTA at (518) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the MIN-GSW series at Golden State
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(521) HOUSTON at (522) LA CLIPPERS
* HOUSTON has won five straight ATS when playing LAC
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
