The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 48-39-1 (55.2%). Here are today’s results:

– UTAH (+13.5 at MIN)
Extreme stat system #5, streak system #1, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Utah 

– BROOKLYN (+6 vs ATL)
BKN is underpriced in all three Makinen ratings projections and recent head-to-head trend favors them 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 games when OKC visits Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-MIL (o/u at 232.5)

* Home teams playing on 3+DaysRest are 68-33 SU and 63-36-2 ATS (63.6%) hosting road teams on OneDayRest over the last three seasons.
Systems Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7 vs. TOR) 

* Favorites are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 of the Magic-Cavs head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. ORL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, ATLANTA, CHARLOTTE, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, UTAH, CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, PORTLAND, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-LAL, CHA-LAC, OKC-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-MIN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 68-33 SU and 63-36-2 ATS (63.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/16: PORTLAND vs. Toronto
Systems Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7 vs. TOR) 

* Home teams playing a head-to-head b2b game were 47-49 SU and 53-41-2 ATS (56.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
3/16: MILWAUKEE vs. Oklahoma City
Systems Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+5 vs. OKC) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 33-42 SU but 42-32-3 ATS (56.8%) facing hosts playing a 3rdHomein4Days game over the  last four seasons.
3/16: OKLAHOMA CITY at Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at MIL) 

* Over the total was 59-42 (58.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/16: Over the total in TORONTO-PORTLAND
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-POR (o/u at 227.5) 

* Over the total was 101-84 (54.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
3/16: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-OKLAHOMA CITY
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MIL (o/u at 231.5)

* LA LAKERS are on a 20-31 SU and 20-30-1 ATS skid in the last 51 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/16: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3 vs. PHX) 

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-35 SU and 45-29-1 ATS in its last 75 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/16: PHILADELPHIA at Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6.5 at DAL) 

* UTAH is on a 48-26 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
3/16: Over the total in UTAH-MINNESOTA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MIN (o/u at 234)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 242-44 SU but just 133-147-6 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-13 vs. CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-88 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 206-166 (55.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 266-207 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-CLE (o/u at 220.5), CHA-LAC (o/u at 222.5)
UNDER – UTA-MIN (o/u at 234)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 125-127 SU but 131-106-5 ATS (55.3%), including 92-56-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+13.5 at MIN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 304-257 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-POR (o/u at 227.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 280-297 SU and 255-314-8 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (+3 at LAL), CHARLOTTE (+13 at LAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 318-290 SU but 274-315-17 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (+3 at LAL), CHARLOTTE (+13 at LAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 159-172 SU and 150-172-9 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (+3 at LAL), CHARLOTTE (+13 at LAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 34-71 SU but 58-47 ATS (55.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ATS): UTAH (+13.5 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 117-20 SU but 58-76-3 ATS (43.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs ORL), MINNESOTA (-13.5 vs UTA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on LOSING TEAMS (196-217 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced WINNING TEAMS (271-268 ATS, 50.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (-3 vs. PHX), PORTLAND (-7 vs TOR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 242-291-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs ORL), UTAH (+13.5 at MIN), MINNESOTA (-13.5 vs. UTA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-79-1 ATS (42.3%) in the next game, including 27-40 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. ORL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +6 (+5.5)
2. PHOENIX +3 (+2.2)
3. PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+2.2)
2. LA CLIPPERS -13 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +6 (+5.5)
2. TORONTO +6.5 (+3.2)
3. PHOENIX +3 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -6.5 (+1.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5 (+0.4)
3. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-CLE OVER 220.5 (+2.4)
2. PHX-LAL OVER 228 (+1.7)
3. ATL-BKN OVER 229 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-LAC UNDER 223 (-5.2)
2. PHI-DAL UNDER 224.5 (-2.7)
3. OKC-MIL UNDER 232.5 (-1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +6 (+5.0)
2. PHOENIX +3 (+3.2)
3. ORLANDO +11 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+3.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS -13 (+2.1)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-BKN OVER 229 (+4.4)
2. PHX-LAL OVER 228 (+1.6)
3. TOR-POR OVER 227.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-LAC UNDER 223 (-5.2)
2. PHI-DAL UNDER 224.5 (-2.9)
3. ORL-CLE UNDER 220.5 (-2.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(547) PHILADELPHIA at (548) DALLAS
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of PHI-DAL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(549) PHOENIX at (550) LA LAKERS
* Favorites are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the PHX-LAL head-to-head divisional rivalry in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS 

(551) ATLANTA at (552) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN has covered seven straight ATS versus Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS 

(553) ORLANDO at (554) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 of the ORL-CLE head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND

(555) TORONTO at (556) PORTLAND
* Underdogs are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups between TOR and POR in Portland
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(557) UTAH at (558) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 16-4 ATS in the last 20 of the UTA-MIN head-to-head divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS 

(559) CHARLOTTE at (560) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the CHA-LAC head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS 

(561) OKLAHOMA CITY at (562) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 games when OKC visits Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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