Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 32-27. Here are today’s results:
– BOSTON (-3.5 vs. DEN)
Multiple DK Betting Splits Systems favor BOS and extreme shooting stats systems fade DEN
– TOR-ORL OVER 208.5
Scheduling trend for TOR favors Over and multiple DK Betting Splits systems/Makinen ratings projections favor Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 74-28 SU and 64-37-1 ATS (63.4%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at UTA)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 42-25 SU and 42-22-3 ATS (65.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2 vs. MIN)
* NBA teams, coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer, have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 177-145 SU and 182-131-9 ATS (58.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-10.5 vs. CHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of home teams playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO, OKLAHOMA CITY, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-BOS, CHI-IND, OKC-SAS, NOP-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-ORL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 151-100 SU but 110-138-3 ATS (44.4%) versus teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the last four seasons.
3/2: Fade ORLANDO vs. Toronto
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-7.5 vs. TOR)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 42-25 SU and 42-22-3 ATS (65.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/2: PHOENIX vs. Minnesota
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2 vs. MIN)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 27-36 SU and 23-39-1 ATS (37.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/2: Fade SAN ANTONIO vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+14 vs. OKC)
* Under the total was 118-95-1 (55.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/2: Under the total in PHOENIX-MINNESOTA
3/2: Under the total in LA LAKERS-LA CLIPPERS
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-PHX (o/u at 231), LAC-LAL (o/u at 220.5)
* Over the total is 39-24 (61.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/2: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 237)
* DENVER is on a 4-15 ATS skid (11-8 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
3/2: Fade DENVER at Boston
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+3.5 at BOS)
* LA LAKERS are on a 19-31 SU and 19-30-1 ATS skid in the last 50 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/2: Fade LA LAKERS vs. La Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+3 vs. LAC)
* PHOENIX is 22-17 SU but 13-24-2 ATS in its last 39 3rd Straight Home games
3/2: Fade PHOENIX vs. Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-2 vs. MIN)
* TORONTO is 22-12 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
3/2: Over the total in TORONTO-ORLANDO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-ORL (o/u at 208.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 145-51 SU and 117-78-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (*if they become favored in this line range vs DEN, -3.5 currently)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 74-28 SU and 64-37-1 ATS (63.4%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 234-44 SU but just 129-143-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. POR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 101-83 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 198-165 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-201 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-CLE (o/u at 236.5), OKC-SAS (o/u at 237)
UNDER – CHI-IND (o/u at 242)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 235-130 SU but 165-192-8 ATS (46.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 at SAS)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 274-289 SU and 250-305-8 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+3.5 at BOS), MIAMI (+6.5 vs. NYK), INDIANA (-10.5 vs. CHI), PHOENIX (-2 vs. MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 306-286 SU but 265-308-17 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 at SAS), MINNESOTA (+2 at PHX), PHOENIX (-2 vs. MIN)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 152-170 SU and 145-168-9 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-13.5 at SAS), MINNESOTA (+2 at PHX)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 177-145 SU and 182-131-9 ATS (58.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-10.5 vs. CHI)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 185-73 SU and 137-118-3 ATS (53.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 at UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 109-20 SU BUT 56-70-4 ATS (44.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 235-283-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 55-74-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game, including 24-38 ATS (38.7%) on the road over the L4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11 vs. POR)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +2 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO +10.5 (+0.9)
3. UTAH +7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -11 (+2.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS -3 (+1.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -14 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +10.5 (+5.4)
2. TORONTO +7.5 (+0.9)
3. MIAMI +6.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -11 (+4.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS -3 (+2.1)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -14 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-IND OVER 242 (+1.6)
2. TOR-ORL OVER 208.5 (+1.4)
3. LAC-LAL OVER 220.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-PHX UNDER 231 (-2.2)
2. NOP-UTA UNDER 232 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +2 (+2.6)
2(tie). MIAMI +6.5 (+0.6)
TORONTO +7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -11 (+2.9)
2. LA CLIPPERS -3 (+1.3)
3. BOSTON -3.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-IND OVER 242 (+1.0)
2. TOR-ORL OVER 208.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-LAL UNDER 220.5 (-7.4)
2. POR-CLE UNDER 236.5 (-3.6)
3. DEN-BOS UNDER 233 (-1.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(561) DENVER at (562) BOSTON
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head games between DEN and BOS at Boston
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(563) PORTLAND at (564) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the POR-CLE head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(569) TORONTO at (570) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games hosting TOR
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(573) NEW ORLEANS at (574) UTAH
* UTAH is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine games hosting NOP (underdog in four of the nine as well)
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(575) MINNESOTA at (576) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the MIN-PHX series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
