Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 39-32-1 (54.9%). Here are today’s results:
– OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. DEN)
Many extreme stat systems fade Denver + team strength system #1 favors OKC
– PHX-DAL UNDER 228.5
Several DK Betting Splits systems and recent head-to-head trend both favor UNDER
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 56-78-1 ATS (41.8%) in the next game, including 25-40 ATS (38.5%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 at MIL)
* UTAH is 14-21 SU but 26-9 ATS (74.3%) in its last 35 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6 at PHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, MEMPHIS, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a HOME UNDERDOG in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHILADELPHIA ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MINNESOTA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-DAL, MEM-NOP, SAC-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-OKC, CLE-MIL, DET-POR
UNDER – PHX-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2DaysRest are 153-101 SU but 111-140-3 ATS (44.2%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
3/9: Fade PHILADELPHIA vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. UTA)
* Hosts playing in a A2H b2b game scenario are 31-37 SU and 25-42-1 ATS (37.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on OneDayRest.
3/9: Fade NEW ORLEANS vs. Memphis
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 vs MEM)
* Over the total is 43-25 (63.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/9: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* PORTLAND is 33-67 SU and 40-60 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on OneDayRest
3/9: Fade PORTLAND vs. Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+2.5 vs. DET)
* UTAH is 14-21 SU BUT 26-9 ATS in its last 35 3rd Straight Road games
3/9: UTAH at Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6 at PHI)
* UTAH is on a 47-25 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
3/9: Over the total in UTAH-PHILADELPHIA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHI (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 147-51 SU and 119-78-1 ATS (60.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 103-85 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-165 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 263-203 (56.4%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 148-89 SU but 107-126-4 ATS (45.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is a 90-112 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-7.5 at DAL)
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 266-140 SU but just 174-219-13 ATS (44.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-9 at MIL), MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs. SAS)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 299-255 (54%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIL (o/u at 237.5), DET-POR (o/u at 232.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 276-293 SU and 253-308-8 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+7.5 at OKC)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 311-287 SU but 269-310-17 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the L4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+7.5 at OKC)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 155-170 SU and 147-169-9 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last 6 seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+7.5 at OKC)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 150-100 SU and 143-100-7 ATS (58.8%) since ‘21.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs DEN)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 186-73 SU and 137-119-3 ATS (53.5%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-7.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 111-20 SU but 56-72-4 ATS (43.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs. SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 71-18 SU and 50-36-3 ATS (58.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (194-215 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (266-265 ATS, 50.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE): DALLAS (+7.5 vs. PHX), UTAH (+6 at PHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 74-85 SU but 90-67-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 239-288-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 56-78-1 ATS (41.8%) in the next game, including 25-40 ATS (38.5%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 at MIL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +9 (+2.2)
2. PORTLAND +3 (+1.2)
3. SACRAMENTO +6 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.7)
2. CLEVELAND -9 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +11 (+5.4)
2. DALLAS +7.5 (+4.0)
3. DENVER +7.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -9 (+0.7)
2. CLEVELAND -9 (+0.6)
3. DETROIT -3 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). PHX-DAL OVER 228.5 (+0.9)
DET-POR OVER 234 (+0.9)
3. SAC-LAC OVER 219 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-MIN UNDER 233.5 (-2.9)
2. MEM-NOP UNDER 240 (-1.1)
3. CLE-MIL UNDER 238 (-0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +3 (+4.1)
2. DENVER +7.5 (+1.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO +11 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+0.6)
2. MEMPHIS -9 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-MIN OVER 233.5 (+3.2)
2. MEM-NOP OVER 240 (+2.7)
3. SAC-LAC OVER 219 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DET-POR UNDER 234 (-0.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(517) DENVER at (518) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 of DEN-OKC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(519) PHOENIX at (520) DALLAS
* Under the total is 12-2 in the last 14 of PHX-DAL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(521) MEMPHIS at (522) NEW ORLEANS
* MEMPHIS is 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus NOP
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) MINNESOTA
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-1 ATS in the last six visits to Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(529) DETROIT at (530) PORTLAND
* PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games versus Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS
(531) SACRAMENTO at (532) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is on runs of five straight in the overall head-to-head series and 8-2 in the last 10 when SAC visits LAC
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
