Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 17, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on an 20-2 SU and18-4 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. DAL)
-Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 58-36 (61.7%) in their last 94 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-POR (o/u at 232)
* Under the total was on a 34-11 (75.6%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 229)
* LA CLIPPERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups with UTA in Los Angeles
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-10 vs UTA)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority moneyline handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK (-440 vs. BKN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, PORTLAND, BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS, DETROIT, LA CLIPPERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, DENVER ML, CHARLOTTE ML, DALLAS ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-IND, DET-WSH, DAL-OKC, HOU-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-POR
UNDER – DET-WSH, HOU-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-MIN, BKN-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DET-WSH, DAL-OKC, HOU-CHI
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 180-122 SU and 174-120 ATS (59.2%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
11/17: PORTLAND vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+3.5 vs. ATL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 61-29 SU and 54-34-2 ATS (61.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/17: PORTLAND vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+3.5 vs. ATL)
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 46-36 SU and 46-34-2 ATS (57.5%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
11/17: MEMPHIS vs. Denver
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-2 vs DEN)
* OVER the total was 106-74 (58.9%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/17: OVER the total in ATLANTA-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-POR (o/u at 232)
* OVER the total was 52-38 (57.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/17: OVER the total in PORTLAND-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-POR (o/u at 232)
* OVER the total was 44-37 (54.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/17: OVER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DALLAS
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-OKC (o/u at 231)
11/17: OVER the total in CLEVELAND-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-CLE (o/u at 226)
* UNDER the total was 36-18 (66.7%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/17: UNDER the total in MEMPHIS-DENVER
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 229)
* UNDER the total was on a 34-11 (75.6%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/17: UNDER the total in DENVER-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 229)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* DALLAS was 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
11/17: DALLAS at Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4.5 at OKC)
* MIAMI is on a 18-10 SU and 20-7-1 ATS run when playing a 4thStraightRoad game
11/17: MIAMI at Indiana
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4 at IND)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 20-2 SU and18-4 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
11/17: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Dallas
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. DAL)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-8 OVER the total in its last 29 3rd Straight Home games
11/17: OVER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DALLAS
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-OKC (o/u at 231)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 88-76 (53.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 228-163 (58.3%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-CLE (o/u at 225.5), UTA-LAC (o/u at 220.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 203-118 SU but 143-172-6 ATS (45.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHA)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 113-117 SU but 118-97-5 ATS (54.9%), including 85-50-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+5.5 vs. DET), MEMPHIS (-2 vs. DEN)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 243-130 SU but just 158-204-11 ATS (43.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-9.5 vs. BKN)
Divisional upsets can lead to Unders
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 58-36 (61.7%) in their last 94 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-POR (o/u at 232)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 271-224 (54.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-MIN (o/u at 218.5)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 252-241 SU and 221-259-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 vs. HOU), MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs. PHX), CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHA)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 121-89 SU and 118-88-4 ATS (57.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): *OKC and DAL both qualify but play each other
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 156-57 SU and 118-92-3 ATS (56.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 94-17 SU but 49-60-3 ATS (45%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (167-187 ATS, 47.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (225-217 ATS, 50.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): WASHINGTON (+5.5 vs. DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 198-246-1 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs CHA), WASHINGTON (+5.5 vs. DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 47-66-1 ATS (41.6%) in the next game, including 21-36 ATS (36.8%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHA)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +4.5 (+4.3)
2. MIAMI +4 (+0.8)
3. WASHINGTON +5.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -2 (+3.3)
2. CLEVELAND -10.5 (+1.0)
3. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +3.5 (+5.2)
2. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+2.4)
3. CHICAGO +4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -2 (+6.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -10 (+3.4)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-IND OVER 228.5 (+1.7)
2. BKN-NYK OVER 219.5 (+1.5)
3. PHX-MIN OVER 218.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-CHI UNDER 234 (-8.8)
2. DAL-OKC UNDER 231 (-4.0)
3. DET-WSH UNDER 230 (-2.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +4.5 (+4.8)
2. WASHINGTON +5.5 (+1.3)
3. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -3.5 (+2.4)
2. MEMPHIS -2 (+2.2)
3. NEW YORK -9.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-LAC OVER 220.5 (+4.0)
2. CHA-CLE OVER 226 (+2.6)
3. PHX-MIN OVER 218.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-WSH UNDER 230 (-3.2)
2. HOU-CHI UNDER 234 (-3.0)
3. DAL-OKC UNDER 231 (-2.7)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(535) PHOENIX at (536) MINNESOTA
* PHOENIX has won nine straight ATS in regular season matchups with MIN
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
(537) MIAMI at (538) INDIANA
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the MIA-IND series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
* OVER the total has converted in last five of the MIA-IND series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(539) DENVER at (540) MEMPHIS
* HOME TEAMS are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games of the DEN-MEM series, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(543) DETROIT at (544) WASHINGTON
* UNDER the total is 11-4 in the DET-WSH series since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(545) CHARLOTTE at (546) CLEVELAND
* OVER the total is 6-1 in the CHA-CLE matchups since start of the 2022-23 season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(549) BROOKLYN at (550) NEW YORK
* OVER the total is 4-1 in the last five of BKN-NYK rivalry in matchups at NYK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(551) HOUSTON at (552) CHICAGO
* OVER the total has hit in all six nonconference head-to-head matchups between HOU and CHI since start of 2021-22 season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(553) UTAH at (554) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups with UTA in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
