Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 8+ Days scenario are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS (81.3%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 vs. TOR)
*NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 166-140 SU and 170-127-9 ATS (57.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-7 at NOP)
* Under the total was 11-1 (91.7%) last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 227)
* NEW ORLEANS has covered 6 straight ATS in the series with Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+7 vs. SAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, SACRAMENTO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, MIAMI ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-NOP
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-NOP
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following iNBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 67-40 SU and 65-40-2 ATS (61.9%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/12: MIAMI vs. Toronto
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 vs TOR)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 45-20 SU and 40-22-3 ATS (64.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/12: BOSTON vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-12.5 vs. DET)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 31-10 SU and 28-11-2 ATS (71.8%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/12: MIAMI vs. Toronto
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 vs. TOR)
* Home teams playing in a 3rdHomein8+Days scenario are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS (81.3%) hosting teams playing on 2DaysRest over the L3 seasons.
12/12: MIAMI vs. Toronto
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 vs. TOR)
* UNDER the total was 73-45 (61.9%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
12/12: UNDER the total in MIAMI-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-MIA (o/u at 224.5)
* UNDER the total was 9-1 (90%) last seasons when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing 3rd Straight Road game.
12/12: Under the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 227)
* OVER the total was 60-29 (67.4%) last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
12/12: Over the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-BOS (o/u at 227)
* UNDER the total was 26-13 (66.7%) last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
12/12: Under the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 227)
* UNDER the total was 21-8 (72.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/12: Under the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 227)
* UNDER the total was 11-1 (91.7%) last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
12/12: Under the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 227)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 167-143 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 236-174 (57.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-BOS (o/u at 227), TOR-MIA (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 208-121 SU, but 147-176-6 ATS (45.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-7 at NOP)
Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 65-49 SU and 63-49-2 ATS (56.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-7 at NOP)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 249-263 SU and 227-279-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+12.5 at BOS)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 166-140 SU and 170-127-9 ATS (57.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-7 at NOP)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 166-62 SU and 125-100-3 ATS (55.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-7 at NOP)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -12.5 (+1.5)
2. MIAMI -10.5 (+0.8)
3. SACRAMENTO -7 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +10.5 (+1.2)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -12.5 (+1.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DET-BOS OVER 227 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-MIA UNDER 224.5 (-1.8)
2. SAC-NOP UNDER 231.5 (-1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -10.5 (+1.7)
2. BOSTON -12.5 (+1.6)
3. SACRAMENTO -7 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAC-NOP OVER 231.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-MIA UNDER 224.5 (-3.3)
2. DET-BOS UNDER 227 (-1.1)
Top Daily Series Head-to-Head NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(573) DETROIT at (574) BOSTON
* Over the total is 6-1 in the DET-BOS series at Boston since 2022
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(575) TORONTO at (576) MIAMI
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the TOR-MIA series at Miami
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(577) SACRAMENTO at (578) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS has covered six straight ATS in the series with Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
* Under the total is 7-2 in the SAC-NOP series at New Orleans since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
