Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 71-25 SU and 62-33-1 ATS (65.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4 at WSH)
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the nonconference series with Orlando
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at ORL)
Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 34-15 SU and 31-15-3 ATS (67.4%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, TORONTO, DALLAS, PORTLAND
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 138-162 SU and 134-159-7 ATS (45.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MEMPHIS, DALLAS, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, BROOKLYN, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SAN ANTONIO, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DETROIT, PHOENIX, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MEMPHIS, DALLAS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, TORONTO ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-ORL, CHI-BOS, NOP-HOU, ATL-SAS, LAC-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-MEM
UNDER – ATL-SAS, DEN-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-TOR, NYK-MIN
UNDER – OKC-ORL, NOP-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SAS
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 185-125 SU and 179-123 ATS (59.3%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 vs. OKC)
* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 75-47 SU and 73-46-3 ATS (61.3%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS, PORTLAND, LA LAKERS
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 78-51 SU and 71-55-3 ATS (56.3%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 vs. OKC)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 64-30 SU and 58-34-2 ATS (63%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 vs. OKC)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 34-15 SU and 31-15-3 ATS (67.4%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, TORONTO, DALLAS, PORTLAND
* Over the total was 112-76 (59.6%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 211)
* Under the total was 79-51 (60.8%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-DET, CHA-WSH, BKN-TOR, LAC-DAL, DEN-POR, LAL-SAC
* Over the total was 55-39 (58.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 211)
* Under the total was 73-41 (64%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game—in other words, two pretty rested teams.
Trend Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 13 games today
* Under the total was on a 45-14 (76.3%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-ORL (o/u at 211)
* Under the total was 40-24 (62.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Trend Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 13 games today
* WASHINGTON is on 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS skid when playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+4 vs. CHA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 100-64 SU and 99-62-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (-4 at WSH), BROOKLYN (+4 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 71-25 SU and 62-33-1 ATS (65.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 168-143 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 237-179 (57%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BOS (o/u at 241)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 210-123 SU, but 149-178-6 ATS (45.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-4 vs LAC)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 137-52 SU and 114-73-2 ATS (61%) in their last 189 tries.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 at ORL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 276-232 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-SAC (o/u at 228)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 249-265 SU and 227-281-6 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM), DALLAS (-4 vs LAC)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 272-255 SU and 234-280-11 ATS (45.5%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM), DALLAS (-4 vs LAC)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 138-162 SU and 134-159-7 ATS (45.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at MEM)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 167-141 SU and 170-129-9 ATS (56.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+4 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.4)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+0.7)
3. UTAH +4.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -9 (+1.6)
2. CHARLOTTE -4 (+0.9)
3. BOSTON -14 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.6)
2. ORLANDO +6.5 (+1.4)
3. LA LAKERS +4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+3.3)
2. BOSTON -14 (+1.3)
3. HOUSTON -9 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-MIN OVER 214.5 (+4.3)
2. BKN-TOR OVER 219 (+1.4)
3. CHI-BOS OVER 240.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-5.6)
2. OKC-ORL UNDER 210.5 (-3.7)
3. DEN-POR UNDER 235.5 (-1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:=
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +4 (+2.7)
2. UTAH +4.5 (+2.1)
3. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -14 (+2.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+2.3)
3. CHARLOTTE -4 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-SAC OVER 228 (+5.0)
2. IND-PHX OVER 235 (+2.8)
3. NYK-MIN OVER 214.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-5.2)
2. OKC-ORL UNDER 210.5 (-3.6)
3. DEN-POR UNDER 235.5 (-1.6)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(541) UTAH at (542) DETROIT
* ROAD TEAMS are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of UTA-DET h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) ORLANDO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the non-conference series with Orlando
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(547) CHICAGO at (548) BOSTON
* Over the total is 4-0 in all four matchups between CHI and BOS in the last two seasons
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(549) BROOKLYN at (550) TORONTO
* Favorites have covered 11 of the last 14 of the BKN-TOR rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(551) GOLDEN STATE at (552) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 hosting GSW, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(555) NEW ORLEANS at (556) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the NOP-HOU divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(559) INDIANA at (560) PHOENIX
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine games when IND visits Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(563) DENVER at (564) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the DEN-POR rivalry in Portland
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
