The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

*Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 34-9 SU and 32-9-2 ATS (78%) in their last 43 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at WSH) 

* Road teams are on runs of eight-straight ATS in the overall h2h series and 11-2-1 in the last 14 of the TOR-MEM nonconference duel
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+11.5 at MEM) 

*NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 252-267 SU and 229-284-6 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-6.5 vs. CHI) 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 46-22 SU and 41-24-3 ATS (63.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+8 vs. HOU). SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. DET)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CHARLOTTE, MIAMI, HOUSTON, TORONTO, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, TORONTO, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – ORLANDO ML, ATLANTA ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MEMPHIS ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, ORLANDO ML, HOUSTON ML, UTAH ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH ML

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ORL, CHI-ATL, HOU-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-WSH, UTA-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-MIL
UNDER – MIA-ORL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 138-93 SU but 101-127-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
12/26: FADE PORTLAND vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs. UTA) 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 74-42 SU but 52-63-1 ATS (45.2%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
12/26: FADE PORTLAND vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-1.5 vs. UTA) 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 46-22 SU and 41-24-3 ATS (63.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/26: SACRAMENTO vs. Detroit
12/26: NEW ORLEANS vs. Houston
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+8 vs. HOU). SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. DET)

* HOUSTON is 10-30 SU and 13-27 ATS in its last 40 3rd Straight Road games
12/26: FADE HOUSTON at New Orleans
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-8 at NOP) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-17 SU and 29-14-2 ATS in its last 45 games playing on 2 Days Rest
12/26: OKLAHOMA CITY at Indiana
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at IND)

* UTAH is 13-19 SU but 23-9 ATS in its last 32 3rd Straight Road games
12/26: UTAH at Portland
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at POR) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 101-65 SU and 100-63-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at WSH), UTAH (+1.5 at POR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 71-26 SU and 62-34-1 ATS (64.6%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 192-36 SU but just 105-119-4 ATS (46.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-11.5 vs TOR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 170-143 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 238-183 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL):  BKN-MIL (o/u at 213), TOR-MEM (o/u at 239.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 263-206 SU but 204-253-12 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs. BKN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 278-232 (54.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-MEM (o/u at 239.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 252-267 SU and 229-284-6 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-6.5 vs. CHI) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 34-9 SU and 32-9-2 ATS (78%) in their last 43 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 67-75 SU and 79-61-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 206-256-3 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-116 SU and 60-78-5 ATS (43.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+11.5 at MEM), NEW ORLEANS (+8 vs. HOU)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.9)
2. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+1.2)
3. MIAMI +1 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -11.5 (+1.5)
2. PORTLAND -1.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +6.5 (+2.6)
2. INDIANA +5.5 (+2.4)
3. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -11.5 (+3.4)
2. PORTLAND -1.5 (+2.7)
3. SACRAMENTO -6 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-ATL OVER 242.5 (+1.4)
2(tie). MIA-ORL OVER 208.5 (+1.2)
BKN-MIL OVER 212.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-IND UNDER 228 (-2.6)
2. CHA-WSH UNDER 227.5 (-2.3)
3. TOR-MEM UNDER 239.5 (-0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+2.4)
2. NEW ORLEANS +8 (+2.0)
3. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+1.5)
2. SACRAMENTO -6 (+1.2)
3. PORTLAND -1.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-POR OVER 228 (+2.4)
2. CHI-ATL OVER 242.5 (+2.2)
3. DET-SAC OVER 228 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-MIL UNDER 212.5 (-4.4)
2. OKC-IND UNDER 228 (-2.3)
3. CHA-WSH UNDER 227.5 (-1.9) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(503) CHARLOTTE at (504) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the CHA-WSH divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(505) MIAMI at (506) ORLANDO
* Home teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the MIA-ORL in-state rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(507) CHICAGO at (508) ATLANTA
* CHICAGO has covered five of the last six overall meetings with Atlanta and also four straight ATS when playing on the road versus them
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(509) BROOKLYN at (510) MILWAUKEE
* BROOKLYN is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS 

(511) HOUSTON at (512) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 6-1 ATS in the last seven hosting games when hosting Houston
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS 

(513) TORONTO at (514) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are on runs of eight-straight ATS in the overall series and 11-2-1 in the last 14 of the TOR-MEM nonconference duel
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

* Under the total has converted in five straight meetings between TOR and MEM
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(515) DETROIT at (516) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams have covered nine straight ATS in the DET-SAC nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

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