The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 126-93 SU and 123-92-4 ATS (57.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-3 at NOP) 

Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between CHI and SAS in San Antonio
Trend Match: PLAY OVER in CHI-SAS (o/u at 236) 

TORONTO is on a 31-14 SU and 29-16 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+9.5 vs. OKC)

Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 66-75 SU but 78-61-3 ATS (56.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 vs. HOU) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of home teams playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, OKLAHOMA CITY, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, MEMPHIS, HOUSTON 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-MEM 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-CLE
UNDER – DAL-WSH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-NYK, HOU-GSW 

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. There are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* TORONTO is on a 31-14 SU and 29-16 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
12/5: TORONTO vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+9.5 vs. OKC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 186-35 SU but just 101-117-3 ATS (46.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-14.5 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-142 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 234-173 (57.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DAL-WSH (o/u at 232), CHA-NYK (o/u at 218)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 273-229 (54.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DAL-WSH (o/u at 232), DEN-CLE (o/u at 234.5)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 126-93 SU and 123-92-4 ATS (57.2%) since ‘21.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-3 at NOP)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-61 SU but 50-41 ATS (54.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs. DAL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 59-16 SU and 43-30-2 ATS (58.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-14.5 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (172-192 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (229-225 ATS, 50.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs. DAL), CHARLOTTE (+14.5 at NYK), NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. PHX), GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 vs. HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 66-75 SU and 78-61-3 ATS (56.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 203-254-2 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-115 SU and 59-78-4 ATS (43.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs. DAL), NEW ORLEANS (+3 vs. PHX)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +9.5 (+1.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+0.8)
3. DENVER +4.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+2.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2 (+2.6)
3. MEMPHIS -3 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +14.5 (+2.8)
2. DENVER +4.5 (+1.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -14.5 (+4.4)
2. MEMPHIS -3 (+2.4)
3. SAN ANTONIO -2 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-WSH OVER 232 (+4.4)
2. CHI-SAS OVER 236 (+3.6)
3. HOU-GSW OVER 220 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-MEM UNDER 241.5 (-1.2)
2. OKC-TOR UNDER 226.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+2.9)
2(tie). DENVER +4.5 (+0.8)
SACRAMENTO +3 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+2.6)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2 (+1.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-NYK OVER 218 (+3.2)
2. DEN-CLE OVER 234 (+3.0)
3. DAL-WSH OVER 232 (+2.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-NOP UNDER 222.5 (-2.1)
2. HOU-GSW UNDER 220 (-0.4)
3. OKC-TOR UNDER 226.5 (-0.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(535) DALLAS at (536) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between DAL and WSH in Washington
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

* WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS versus Dallas since 2019
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(537) DENVER at (538) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 5-0 in the five DEN-CLE meetings since 2022
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) TORONTO
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Toronto
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(545) CHICAGO at (546) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between CHI and SAS in San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(547) SACRAMENTO at (548) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight games between SAC and MEM in Memphis
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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