Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
-WASHINGTON +8.5 (vs. LAL)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 22-19 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
-MEMPHIS -4.5 (vs. HOU)
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 141-50 SU and 114-76-1 ATS (60%) run.
-MINNESOTA (-7 at UTA)
* Road teams are on an extended 22-6 ATS run in the last 28 of the MIN-UTA h2h divisional rivalry (plus Minnesota has covered nine straight ATS when visiting Utah)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – CLEVELAND ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CLE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-POR
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 145-98 SU but 106-134-3 ATS (44.2%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/30: Fade MEMPHIS vs. Houston
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs. HOU)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 41-40 SU and 46-33-2 ATS (58.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
1/30: WASHINGTON vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs. LAL)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 22-19 SU and 25-16 ATS (61%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/30: WASHINGTON vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs. LAL)
* Over the total was 91-73 (55.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/30: Over the total in MINNESOTA-UTAH
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-UTA (o/u at 224.5)
* Over the total was 88-63 (58.3%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/30: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-WSH (o/u at 223)
* Over the total was 28-19 (59.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
1/30: Over the total in CLEVELAND-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CLE (o/u at 238.5)
* Over the total was 16-7 (69.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/30: Over the total in WASHINGTON-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-WSH (o/u at 223)
* HOUSTON is 13-30 SU and 15-28 ATS in its last 43 3rd Straight Road games
1/30: Fade HOUSTON at Memphis
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+4.5 at MEM)
* LA LAKERS are on a 16-31 SU and 16-30-1 ATS skid in the last 47 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/30: Fade LA LAKERS at Washington
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-8.5 at WSH)
* PORTLAND is 28-67 SU and 35-60 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/30: Fade PORTLAND vs. Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs. ORL)
* ATLANTA is 46-26 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
1/30: Over the total in ATLANTA-CLEVELAND
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CLE (o/u at 238.5)
* MINNESOTA is on a 16-4 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
1/30: Over the total in MINNESOTA-UTAH
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-UTA (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 141-50 SU and 114-76-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs. HOU)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-80 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 184-157 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 251-195 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CLE (o/u at 238.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 143-85 SU but 103-121-4 ATS (46%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 88-107 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs. HOU)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams, coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer, have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 174-144 SU and 178-131-9 ATS (57.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-10 vs ATL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 31-67 SU but 53-45 ATS (54.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH (+7 vs. MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-16 SU and 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (*if they become favorites in this line range at Utah, -7 currently)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 70-81 SU but 84-65-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+10 at CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 223-274-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 28-127 SU and 65-85-5 ATS (43.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs. LAL), UTAH (+7 vs. MIN)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +7 (+1.3)
2. PORTLAND +5.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -8.5 (+2.0)
2. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+0.4)
3. CLEVELAND -10 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5.5 (+1.5)
2. WASHINGTON +8.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+2.4)
2. CLEVELAND -10 (+1.0)
3. MINNESOTA -7 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-UTA OVER 224.5 (+0.5)
2. LAL-WSH OVER 223 (+0.4)
3. HOU-MEM OVER 236.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-CLE UNDER 238.5 (-2.0)
2. ORL-POR UNDER 212 (-0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: UTAH +7 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -5.5 (+1.6)
2. CLEVELAND -10 (+0.9)
3. LA LAKERS -8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-MEM OVER 236.5 (+2.6)
2. MIN-UTA OVER 224.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-CLE UNDER 238.5 (-2.1)
2. ORL-POR UNDER 212 (-0.3)
3. LAL-WSH UNDER 223 (-0.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(523) LA LAKERS at (524) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the LAL-WSH non-conference series at Washington
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
(525) ATLANTA at (526) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between ATL and CLE
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(529) ORLANDO at (530) PORTLAND
* Road teams are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 of the ORL-POR series, including 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the ORL-POR series since 2022
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(531) MINNESOTA at (532) UTAH
* Road teams are on an extended 22-6 ATS run in the last 28 of the MIN-UTA divisional rivalry (plus Minnesota has covered nine straight ATS when visiting Utah)
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
