Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, November 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 10-1 in the ORL-LAL non-conference series since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-LAL (o/u at 216)
* UTAH is on a 39-20 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 224.5)
– NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 246-130 SU but just 159-205-12 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at TOR)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 at SAS)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – SAN ANTONIO ML, LA LAKERS ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TOR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ORL-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TOR
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* CHARLOTTE is 31-73 SU and 39-62-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/21: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Detroit
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs. DET)
* ORLANDO is on a 14-16 SU and 21-9 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/21: ORLANDO at LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5 at LAL)
* UTAH is 12-16 SU but 21-7 ATS in its last 28 3rd Straight Road games
11/21: UTAH at San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 at SAS)
* UTAH is on a 39-20 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
11/21: Over the total in UTAH-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 246-130 SU but just 159-205-12 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at TOR)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 271-226 (54.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-LAL (o/u at 216)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 238-254 SU and 218-268-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs. DET)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 256-244 SU and 224-263-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs. DET)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 158-57 SU and 120-92-3 ATS (56.6%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ORLANDO +5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+1.2)
2. DETROIT -1.5 (+0.6)
3. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ORLANDO +5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+1.3)
2. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+1.1)
3. DETROIT -1.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-TOR OVER 225.5 (+4.1)
2. DET-CHA OVER 221 (+2.1)
3. ORL-LAL OVER 216.5 (+1.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
UTA-SAS UNDER 224.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+2.6)
2. DETROIT -1.5 (+2.4)
3. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+1.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ORL-LAL OVER 216.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-SAS UNDER 224.5 (-5.0)
2. MIN-TOR UNDER 225.5 (-1.8)
3. DET-CHA UNDER 221 (-0.6)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) DETROIT at (530) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total has converted in seven straight matchups between DET and CHA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(531) MINNESOTA at (532) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 9-3 ATS in the series with MIN since 2019
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(535) ORLANDO at (536) LA LAKERS
* Under the total is 10-1 in ORL-LAL non-conference series since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
