The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, April 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30: 67-53-2 (55.8%). Here are today’s results:

 

— MEMPHIS (+5 vs GSW)
General scheduling situation, Makinen effective strength ratings projection and recent head-to-head trend all favor MEM, plus three extreme stats systems fade GSW

— POR-ATL UNDER 238.5
Three DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #11 and Makinen effective strength ratings projections all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of Timberwolves-Nuggets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+2.5 at DEN)

* Over the total is 44-29 (60.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CHI (o/u at 235.5)

* Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 252-301-3 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+14.5 at NYK)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last two-plus seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, GOLDEN STATE, ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last two-plus seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last two-plus seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PORTLAND, ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last two-plus seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super-majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, at 67%. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last two-plus seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop-off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last two-plus seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-ATL, GSW-MEM, TOR-CHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Number of majorities have had some decent success when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-MEM
UNDER – POR-ATL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – ORL-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-ATL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 194-131 SU and 189-128 ATS (59.6%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 71-34 SU and 65-38-2 ATS (63.1%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
4/1: DENVER vs. Minnesota
Systems Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 vs MIN)

* Over the total was 120-83 (59.1%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
* Over the total was 61-44 (58.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/1: Over the total in MINNESOTA-DENVER
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DEN (o/u at 232)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 48-53 SU but 54-45-2 ATS (54.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 26-28 SU and 30-24 ATS (55.6%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
4/1: MEMPHIS vs. Golden State
Systems Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+5 vs GSW)

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 47-60 SU and 44-63 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
4/1: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Memphis
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5 at MEM)

* Under the total was 129-103-1 (55.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
* Over the total was 100-71 (58.5%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
* Over the total was 24-12 (66.7%) since start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4thStraightRoad game.
4/1: Over the total in MEMPHIS-GOLDEN STATE
Systems Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER of GSW-MEM (o/u at
236.5)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 33-40 SU and 27-44-2 ATS (38%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
4/1: FADE CHICAGO vs. Toronto
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-5 vs TOR)

* Over the total is 44-29 (60.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/1: Over the total in CHICAGO-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CHI (o/u at 235.5)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 53-51 SU and 42-59-3 ATS skid in the last 104 when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/1: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-6 vs PHX)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 41-38 SU and 46-32-1 ATS in its last 79 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/1: PHILADELPHIA at New York
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+14.5 at NYK)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 107-88 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 220-169 (56.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 274-212 (56.4%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 222)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 245-132 SU but 173-196-8 ATS (46.9%) skid in the follow-up game when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-5 at MEM), ATLANTA (-5.5 vs POR)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 151-92 SU but 110-129-4 ATS (46%) in the follow-up game over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 92-114 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-6 vs PHX), CHICAGO (-5 vs TOR)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 127-130 SU but 133-109-5 ATS (55%), including 93-58-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-5 vs TOR)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 147-55 SU and 118-82-2 ATS (59%) in their last 202 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-4 at SAS)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next-game for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 298-228 SU but 236-275-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-5.5 vs POR)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free-throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 308-262 (54%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-ATL (o/u at 238), PHX-MIL (o/u at 223.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 330-295 SU but 284-322-17 ATS (46.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5 at MEM)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 164-177 SU and 154-178-9 ATS (46.4%) in that next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5 at MEM)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 158-100 SU and 149-102-7 ATS (59.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-2.5 vs MIN), MINNESOTA (+2.5 at DEN)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 192-76 SU and 142-123-3 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-5 vs TOR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (205-227 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (275-272 ATS, 50.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-6 vs PHX), SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs ORL), PORTLAND (+5.5 at ATL)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 79-86 SU but 95-68-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-6 vs PHX), SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 252-301-3 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+14.5 at NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+2.5)
2. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+2.1)
2. NEW YORK -14.5 (+1.0)
3. CHICAGO -5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+6.6)
2. MEMPHIS +5 (+2.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA +14.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -5.5 (+2.0)
2. CHICAGO -5 (+0.3)
3. DENVER -2.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-DEN OVER 232 (+0.8)
2. PHI-NYK OVER 221.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-CHI UNDER 235 (-4.1)
2. GSW-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-3.3)
3. POR-ATL UNDER 238 (-1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+2.4)
2. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+1.1)
3. PORTLAND +5.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+2.4)
2. NEW YORK -14.5 (+2.2)
3. CHICAGO -5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-DEN OVER 232 (+2.1)
2. PHI-NYK OVER 221.5 (+1.4)
3. POR-ATL OVER 238 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-CHI UNDER 235 (-4.4)
2. PHX-MIL UNDER 223.5 (-3.0)
3. GSW-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) PHILADELPHIA at (518) NEW YORK
* ROAD TEAMS are on 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run in PHI-NYK divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(519) PORTLAND at (520) ATLANTA
* HOME TEAMS are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of POR-ATL series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA

(521) GOLDEN STATE at (522) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games hosting GSW
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(523) PHOENIX at (524) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games versus PHX (including six straight ATS wins at HOME)
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(525) TORONTO at (526) CHICAGO
* UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of TOR-CHI series in Chicago, but did go Over the last time
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(527) ORLANDO at (528) SAN ANTONIO
* OVER the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of ORL-SAS non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(529) MINNESOTA at (530) DENVER
* UNDERDOGS are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of MIN-DEN divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

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