The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 15-13. Here are today’s results:

— TORONTO-PHILADELPHIA OVER 225.5
Scheduling trend for Toronto and recent head-to-head trend favors Over

— CHICAGO (+5 vs DET)
Chicago is underpriced in multiple power ratings, and the Bulls have been good recently hosting Detroit

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of MEM-PHX series at Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+3.5 vs MEM)

* Under the total was 82-58 (58.6%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND (o/u at 240)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DETROIT, MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super-majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHILADELPHIA ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MEM-PHX

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 83-51 SU and 80-51-3 ATS (61.1%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
2/11: NEW YORK at Indiana
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3 at IND)

* Under the total was 82-58 (58.6%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
2/11: UNDER the total in INDIANA-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND (o/u at 240)

* PHOENIX is 22-16 SU but 13-23-2 ATS in its last 38 3rd Straight Home games
2/11: FADE PHOENIX vs. Memphis
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+3.5 vs MEM)

* TORONTO is 22-11 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
2/11: OVER the total in TORONTO-PHILADELPHIA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-PHI (o/u at 225.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 145-87 SU but 104-124-4 ATS (45.6%) in the follow-up game over the last six seasons. Included is an 89-110 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs TOR)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 284-249 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-PHX (o/u at 244.5)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 181-68 SU and 133-113-3 ATS (54.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-9 vs TOR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 1.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (187-206 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (255-260 ATS, 49.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+9 at PHI)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +5 (+2.9)
2. INDIANA +3 (+2.4)
3. TORONTO +9 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +9 (+3.9)
2. CHICAGO +5 (+2.4)
3. INDIANA +3 (+0.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MEMPHIS -3.5 (+1.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-IND OVER 240 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-CHI UNDER 237 (-0.5)
2. MEM-PHX UNDER 244.5 (-0.4)
3. TOR-PHI UNDER 225.5 (-0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +5 (+4.4)
2. INDIANA +3 (+3.5)
3. TORONTO +9 (+2.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). DET-CHI OVER 237 (+2.3)
MEM-PHX OVER 244.5 (+2.3)
3. TOR-PHI OVER 225.5 (+1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(561) TORONTO at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* OVER the total is 5-1 in the last six of TOR-PHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(563) NEW YORK at (564) INDIANA
* HOME TEAMS are on runs of 9-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in NYK-IND series
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA

(565) DETROIT at (566) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine games hosting Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(567) MEMPHIS at (568) PHOENIX
* UNDERDOGS are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of MEM-PHX series at Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

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