The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is on an astonishing 22-1 run in the Sacramento-Milwaukee series since 2013, but the one loss came in the last matchup
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-MIL (o/u at 229)

* Home teams are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the series between Phoenix and Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 vs PHX)

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-212 SU but 207-259-13 ATS (44.4%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+8 vs CLE)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 141-96 SU but 103-131-3 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-6 vs BKN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, DENVER, BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles, too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity in success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CHICAGO ML, MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1 1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI  of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-ATL, SAC-MIL, DEN-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-PHI, BKN-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 141-96 SU but 103-131-3 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/14: FADE PORTLAND vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-6 vs BKN)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 39-41 SU and 27-52-1 ATS skid in the last 80 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/14: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Sacramento
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-2 vs SAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 202-38 SU but just 112-124-4 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at PHI)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on the type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 176-149 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 244-191 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-PHI (o/u at 219)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 216-126 SU run but a 154-182-6 ATS (45.8%) skid in the follow-up game when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at PHI)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 139-84 SU but 99-120-4 ATS (45.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 84-107 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-2 vs SAC)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next game for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-212 SU but 207-259-13 ATS (44.4%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+8 vs CLE)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 94-58 SU and 90-60-2 ATS (60%) in that follow-up game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 at IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 279-239 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-PHI (o/u at 219), BKN-POR (o/u at 218)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next game as well, going 135-97 SU and 131-95-6 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (180-198 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (243-241 ATS, 50.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+6 at POR)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 218-268-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU and 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+2 at MIL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +8 (+2.6)
2. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+2.3)
3. DALLAS +4 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -5.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +4 (+3.3)
2. BROOKLYN +6 (+2.4)
3. ATLANTA +5.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -8 (+2.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-IND OVER 232 (+2.2)
2. PHX-ATL OVER 234.5 (+1.6)
3. DEN-DAL OVER 233 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-POR UNDER 218 (-1.5)
2. NOP-CHI UNDER 241 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+2.7)
2. DALLAS +4 (+2.6)
3. PHILADELPHIA +11.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -2 (+0.9)
2. CLEVELAND -8 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-IND OVER 232 (+3.1)
2. PHX-ATL OVER 234.5 (+1.4)
3. DEN-DAL OVER 233 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-CHI UNDER 241 (-4.4)
2. BKN-POR UNDER 218 (-3.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) OKLAHOMA CITY at (560) PHILADELPHIA
* FAVORITES are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the OKC-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(561) CLEVELAND at (562) INDIANA
* ROAD TEAMS are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of CLE-IND divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(563) PHOENIX at (564) ATLANTA
* HOME TEAMS are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 of the series between PHX and ATL
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(565) NEW ORLEANS at (566) CHICAGO
* OVER the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of NOP-CHI matchups
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(567) SACRAMENTO at (568) MILWAUKEE
* OVER the total is on an astonishing 22-1 run in the SAC-MIL series since 2013, but the one loss came in the last matchup
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(571) BROOKLYN at (572) PORTLAND
* UNDERDOGS are 11-3 in the last 14 of the BKN-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

* UNDER the total has converted in five straight matchups between BKN and POR at Portland
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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