The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 of the Portland-Miami series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-10.5 vs POR)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-29 SU and 44-24-1 ATS in its last 69 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at DEN)

* Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 220-270-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-123 SU and 63-82-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles, too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MIAMI ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1 1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while the majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-BKN, POR-MIA, ORL-TOR, WSH-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-BKN, ORL-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): POR-MIA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 187-128 SU and 183-124 ATS (59.6%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
1/21: TORONTO vs. Orlando
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs ORL)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 65-31 SU and 60-34-2 ATS (63.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/21: TORONTO vs. Orlando
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs ORL)

* Over the total was 113-80 (58.5%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/21: OVER the total in ORLANDO-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 214)

* Over the total was 55-41 (57.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/21: OVER the total in TORONTO-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 214)

* OVER the total was 52-45 (53.6%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/21: OVER the total in BROOKLYN-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-BKN (o/u at 218.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-29 SU and 44-24-1 ATS in its last 69 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/21: PHILADELPHIA at Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+13.5 at DEN)

* WASHINGTON is on 10-12 SU and 14-7 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
1/21: WASHINGTON at LA Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 208-38 SU but just 115-126-5 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-10.5 vs POR), DENVER (-13.5 vs PHI), LA LAKERS (-13.5 vs WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 94-79 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 180-151 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 250-192 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-MIA (o/u at 221.5), PHI-DEN (o/u at 230), WSH-LAL (o/u at 228.5)
UNDER – NYK-BKN (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 220-270-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-123 SU and 63-82-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at LAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+1.0)
2. PORTLAND +11 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). ORLANDO -1 (+1.1)
LA LAKERS -13.5 (+1.1)
3. DENVER -13.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). BROOKLYN +11.5 (+0.8)
WASHINGTON +13.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -11 (+1.2)
2. DENVER -13.5 (+1.0)
3. ORLANDO -1 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-DEN OVER 230.5 (+0.4)
2. ORL-TOR OVER 213 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-MIA UNDER 222 (-2.6)
2. NYK-BKN UNDER 219.5 (-1.3)
3. WSH-LAL UNDER 228.5 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +11 (+0.9)
2 (tie). BROOKLYN +11.5 (+0.6)
PHILADELPHIA +13.5 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORLANDO -1 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-DEN OVER 230.5 (+0.9)
2 (tie). ORL-TOR OVER 213 (+0.7)
WSH-LAL OVER 228.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-MIA UNDER 222 (-2.0)
2. NYK-BKN UNDER 219.5 (-0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) NEW YORK at (530) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five games between NYK and BKN at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(531) PORTLAND at (532) MIAMI
* FAVORITES are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 of POR-MIA series
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(533) ORLANDO at (534) TORONTO
* ORLANDO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games versus Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(535) PHILADELPHIA at (536) DENVER
* PHILADELPHIA is on extended 20-6-2 ATS run versus Denver
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(539) WASHINGTON at (540) LA LAKERS
* UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of WSH-LAL non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

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