The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 34-18 SU and 34-17-1 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an away-to-away back-to-back game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs MIA)

* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of MIN-NOP series in New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIN-NOP (o/u at 220.5)

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 68-78 SU but 80-64-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs LAL)

* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 252-133 SU but just 165-208-12 ATS (44.2%) in the next game when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at NOP)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, PHOENIX, LA LAKERS, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). Considering that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, PHOENIX, ATLANTA, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-CHA, LAL-DAL, MIN-NOP, BOS-DEN, MIA-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. Majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-NOP
UNDER – ATL-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – LAL-DAL, MIA-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-CHA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 141-95 SU but 103-130-3 ATS (44.2%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/7: FADE DENVER vs. Boston
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6 vs BOS) 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 77-42 SU but 54-64-1 ATS (45.8%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/7: FADE DENVER vs. Boston
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6 vs BOS)

* Teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game were 73-38 SU and 65-42-4 ATS (60.7%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/7: GOLDEN STATE vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs MIA)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 41-22 SU but 27-35-1 ATS (43.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
1/7: FADE DENVER vs. Boston
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6 vs BOS)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 29-38 SU but 39-28-2 ATS (58.2%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
1/7: MIAMI at Golden State
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+9 at GSW)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 34-18 SU and 34-17-1 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/7: GOLDEN STATE vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs MIA)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 31-21 SU and 30-20-2 ATS (60%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/7: GOLDEN STATE vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs MIA)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 20-32 SU and 19-32-1 ATS (37.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
1/7: FADE DALLAS vs. LA Lakers
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+6.5 vs LAL)

* Over the total was 88-71 (55.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/7: Over the total in MIAMI-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-GSW (o/u at 218)

* Over the total was 52-41 (55.9%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/7: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NOP (o/u at 220.5)

* Over the total is 33-19 (63.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.
1/7: Over the total in DALLAS-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-DAL (o/u at 218.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 32-79 SU and 43-65-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/7: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs PHX)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 195-37 SU but just 107-121-4 ATS (46.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-12 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-146 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-189 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-WSH (o/u at 225)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 55-86 SU and 58-78-5 ATS (42.6%) slide, including 29-47-3 ATS in the last 79 games and 19-34 ATS when a pick-’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+9 at GSW)

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 252-133 SU but just 165-208-12 ATS (44.2%) in the next game when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at NOP)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next game for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 266-209 SU but 206-257-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+6.5 vs ATL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next game as well, going 135-96 SU and 130-95-6 ATS (57.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 vs ATL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 68-78 SU but 80-64-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 vs LAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 216-265-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU and 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs PHX)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +9 (+4.5)
2. DENVER +6 (+1.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -12 (+0.4)
2. ATLANTA -6.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +9 (+2.4)
2. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+2.2)
3. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -12 (+3.9)
2. ATLANTA -6.5 (+0.9)
3. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). HOU-WSH OVER 224.5 (+0.4)
BOS-DEN OVER 237 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-CHA UNDER 223.5 (-2.2)
2. MIN-NOP UNDER 220.5 (-1.1)
3. MIA-GSW UNDER 218 (-0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +9 (+3.1)
2. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.7)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -12 (+0.7)
2. PHOENIX -4.5 (+0.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOS-DEN OVER 237 (+3.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-CHA UNDER 223.5 (-2.9)
2. LAL-DAL UNDER 218.5 (-1.5)
3. HOU-WSH UNDER 224.5 (-1.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) HOUSTON at (532) WASHINGTON
* FAVORITES are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of HOU-WSH series
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(533) PHOENIX at (534) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total has converted in five straight meetings between PHX and CHA in Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(535) LA LAKERS at (536) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of series with LAL but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS 

(537) MINNESOTA at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* OVER the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of MIN-NOP series in New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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