Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, November 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
— NBA teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 64-74 SU & 76-60-3 ATS (55.9%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+7.5 at MIL)
— DETROIT is on a 15-2 UNDER the total run when playing a third straight home game
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-DET (o/u at 214.5)
— NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 152-57 SU and 115-91-3 ATS (55.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3 at PHI)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, NEW YORK, PHOENIX, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles, too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS — BOSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1 1/2 seasons, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, DALLAS ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-DET, CHA-ORL, TOR-MIL, PHX-UTA, MIN-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): PHX-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIN-POR
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MIAMI is on a 17-9 SU and 19-6-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
11/12: MIAMI at Detroit
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at DET)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 30-36 SU and 20-45-1 ATS skid in its last 66 games when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/12: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Toronto
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7.5 vs. TOR)
* PORTLAND is 24-61 SU and 30-55 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/12: FADE PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+8.5 vs. MIN)
* DETROIT is on a 15-2 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
11/12: UNDER the total in DETROIT-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-DET (o/u at 214.5)
* TORONTO is 20-9 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/12: OVER the total in TORONTO-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-MIL (o/u at 226)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on some team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 86-72 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-162 (58.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-BOS (o/u at 224)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 271-223 (54.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTAH (+4 vs. PHX)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 248-239 SU and 219-255-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. DAL)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 152-57 SU and 115-91-3 ATS (55.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3 at PHI)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (165-184 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-216 ATS, 50.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): TORONTO (+7.5 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 64-74 SU and 76-60-3 ATS (55.9%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+7.5 at MIL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +15.5 (+0.6)
2 (tie). CHARLOTTE +8 (+0.5)
UTAH +4 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -8.5 (+1.4)
2 (tie). NEW YORK -3 (+0.2)
GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +8.5 (+4.3)
2. UTAH +4 (+3.4)
3. DETROIT +1.5 (+3.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+5.1)
2. NEW YORK -3 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-MIL OVER 226 (+5.4)
2. PHX-UTA OVER 226 (+2.0)
3. MIN-POR OVER 220.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-BOS UNDER 224 (-4.6)
2. NYK-PHI UNDER 212.5 (-2.6)
3. MIA-DET UNDER 214 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +2.5 (+2.1)
2. ATLANTA +15.5 (+0.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA +3 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -8.5 (+6.1)
2. MIAMI -1.5 (+2.8)
3. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-MIL OVER 226 (+4.6)
2. ATL-BOS OVER 224 (+3.7)
3. PHX-UTA OVER 226 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-GSW UNDER 235 (-4.1)
2. NYK-PHI UNDER 212.5 (-1.8)
3. MIA-DET UNDER 214 (-0.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) ATLANTA at (534) BOSTON
* UNDER the total is 6-2 in the last eight games of the series in Boston
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(535) MIAMI at (536) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games vs. Miami
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(537) CHARLOTTE at (538) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 5-1 ATS in the last six games of the series but did lose the last time
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(543) PHOENIX at (544) UTAH
* OVER the total hit in all four PHX-UTA matchups last season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(545) MINNESOTA at (546) PORTLAND
* OVER the total is 6-1 in the last seven of this divisional series in Portland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(547) DALLAS at (548) GOLDEN STATE
* DALLAS is 6-1 ATS versus the Warriors in the last seasons
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
