The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, November 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home teams are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games of the Denver-Memphis series
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-3.5 vs DEN)

* Utah is 12-15 SU but 20-7 ATS the last 27 times it played a third straight road game
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+11 at LAL)

In games between teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-62 SU and 93-62-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+3 at BKN)

Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 48-66-1 ATS (42.1%) in the next game, including 21-36 ATS (36.8%) on the road over the last seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at BOS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, BROOKLYN, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles, too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, BROOKLYN ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-BKN, NOP-DAL, UTA-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTA-LAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2DaysRest are 137-92 SU but 101-125-3 ATS (44.7%) versus teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the last four seasons.
11/19: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-11 vs UTA)

* Home teams on 2DaysRest are 56-41 SU but 41-56 ATS (42.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rdRoadin4Days game over the last four seasons.
11/19: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-11 vs UTA)

* Over the total was 31-22 (58.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2DaysRest and the road team was playing a 3rdRoadin4Days game.
11/19: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-UTAH
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-LAL (o/u at 234)

* Under the total was on a 35-11 (76.1%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a OneDayRest game.
11/19: UNDER the total in DENVER-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 227)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* DENVER is on a 1-11 ATS skid (5-7 SU) playing its 3rdStraightRoad game since the start of last season
11/19: FADE DENVER at Memphis
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+3.5 at MEM)

* UTAH is 12-15 SU but 20-7 ATS in its last 27 3rdStraightRoad games
11/19: UTAH at LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+11 at LAL)

* UTAH is on a 38-20 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
11/19: OVER the total in UTAH-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-LAL (o/u at 234)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 136-47 SU and 110-72-1 ATS (60.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-5.5 vs CLE)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-62 SU and 93-62-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+3 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 89-76 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 230-163 (58.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in UTA-LAL (o/u at 234), PLAY UNDER in NOP-DAL (o/u at 222)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 244-130 SU but just 158-204-12 ATS (43.6%) in the next game when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-5.5 vs CLE)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 271-225 (54.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-DAL (o/u at 222)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 254-242 SU and 222-261-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-5.5 vs CLE), CHARLOTTE (+3 at BKN)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 130-153 SU and 128-148-7 ATS (46.4%) in that next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+3 at BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 95-17 SU but 50-60-3 ATS (45.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-11 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 200-248-1 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-110 SU and 58-75-3 ATS (43.6%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at BOS)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 48-66-1 ATS (42.1%) in the next game, including 21-36 ATS (36.8%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at BOS)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+1.2)
2. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+1.1)
3. NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -3.5 (+1.3)
2. LA LAKERS -11 (+1.1)
3. BROOKLYN -3 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND +5.5 (+3.0)
2. NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -3.5 (+4.2)
2. LA LAKERS -11 (+2.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-BKN OVER 221 (+1.7)
2. UTA-LAL OVER 234 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-DAL UNDER 222 (-2.9)
2. DEN-MEM UNDER 227 (-2.7)
3. OKC-SAS UNDER 223 (-1.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+0.8)
2. DENVER +3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -11 (+2.1)
2. BOSTON -5.5 (+1.4)
3. BROOKLYN -3 (+1.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches:
DEN-MEM OVER 227 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-DAL UNDER 222 (-5.0)
2. OKC-SAS UNDER 223 (-3.0)
3. CLE-BOS UNDER 235 (-2.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) CLEVELAND at (502) BOSTON
* CLEVELAND is 5-1-1 ATS in its last games visiting Boston
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(503) CHARLOTTE at (504) BROOKLYN
* CHARLOTTE is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(505) DENVER at (506) MEMPHIS
* HOME TEAMS are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of this series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

* UNDER the total is 7-1 ATS in the last eight DEN-MEM matchups in Memphis
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(511) UTAH at (512) LA LAKERS
* OVER the total is 7-1 in the last eight matchups between UTA and LAL
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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