The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 matchups between Milwaukee and New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIL-NOP (o/u at 236.5) 

* Underdogs have covered eight straight ATS in the Golden State-Sacramento divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+7 at SAC) 

* Over the total was 15-6 (71.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-BKN (o/u at 218.5) 

* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 117-119 SU but 122-99-5 ATS (55.2%), including 87-51-1 ATS (63.0%) when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+17 at OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, CLEVELAND, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MINNESOTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX ML, BOSTON ML 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-BKN, DET-ATL, MIN-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-NOP, GSW-SAC
UNDER – DET-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-LAC
UNDER – PHX-BKN, MIN-DAL 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 142-98 SU but 105-132-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/22: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Utah
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17 vs. UTA) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 40-39 SU and 45-32-2 ATS (58.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the last two seasons.
1/22: BROOKLYN vs. Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+11.5 vs. PHX) 

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 21-18 SU and 24-15 ATS (61.5%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/22: BROOKLYN vs. Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+11.5 vs. PHX)

* Under the total was 112-87-1 (56.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/22: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-LAC (o/u at 218) 

* Over the total was 88-61 (59.1%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/22: Over the total in BROOKLYN-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-BKN (o/u at 218.5) 

* Over the total was 15-6 (71.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/22: Over the total in BROOKLYN-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-BKN (o/u at 218.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 41-55 SU and 38-58 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
1/22: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Sacramento
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+7.5 at SAC) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on an 18-26 SU and 12-32 ATS skid in its last 44 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/22: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Boston
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+10 vs. BOS) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-18 SU and 30-15-2 ATS in its last 47 games playing on 2 Days Rest
1/22: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17 vs. UTA) 

* UTAH is 14-20 SU but 25-9 ATS in its last 34 3rd Straight Road games
1/22: UTAH at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+17 at OKC) 

* UTAH is on a 44-23 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
1/22: Over the total in UTAH-OKLAHOMA CITY
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-OKC (o/u at 228)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 210-38 SU but just 117-126-5 ATS (48.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX (-11.5 at BKN), MEMPHIS (-12 vs. CHA), BOSTON (-10 at LAC) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 95-79 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 181-152 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 250-192 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-BKN (o/u at 218.5), CHA-MEM (o/u at 240.5), BOS-LAC (o/u at 218)
UNDER – UTA-OKC (o/u at 228)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 117-119 SU but 122-99-5 ATS (55.2%), including 87-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+17 at OKC) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 256-134 SU but just 169-209-12 ATS (44.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-12 vs. CHA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 290-263 SU but 249-289-13 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 at LAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 147-165 SU and 142-162-8 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 at LAC) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 138-97 SU and 133-95-7 ATS (58.3%) since ‘21.
System Match (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO (-7 vs. GSW), BOSTON (-10.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+2.7)
2. HOUSTON +2.5 (+2.5)
3. DALLAS +3 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+2.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+1.6)
3. MEMPHIS -12 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +3 (+5.8)
2. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+4.2)
3. UTAH +17 (+3.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+1.4)
2. BOSTON -10.5 (+1.3)
3. ATLANTA -2.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-HOU OVER 230 (+0.6)
2. PHX-BKN OVER 218 (+0.5)
3. MIN-DAL OVER 216 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-MEM UNDER 240.5 (-3.3)
2. BOS-LAC UNDER 218 (-2.4)
3. GSW-SAC UNDER 230 (-1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +11.5 (+2.2)
2. HOUSTON +2.5 (+1.3)
3. MINNESOTA +3 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+3.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+2.9)
3. BOSTON -10.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-BKN OVER 218 (+4.3)
2. MIN-DAL OVER 216 (+1.2)
3. UTA-OKC OVER 228 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-MEM UNDER 240.5 (-3.6)
2. BOS-LAC UNDER 218 (-2.8)
3. DET-ATL UNDER 233.5 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(541) PHOENIX at (542) BROOKLYN
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the PHX-BKN non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(543) DETROIT at (544) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 13-2 in last 15 of the DET-ATL series at Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(545) MINNESOTA at (546) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the MIN-DAL series
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS 

(547) CLEVELAND at (548) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the CLE-HOU non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(549) MILWAUKEE at (550) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 matchups between MIL and NOP
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(551) CHARLOTTE at (552) MEMPHIS
* Over the total has converted in five straight games between CHA and MEM
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(555) GOLDEN STATE at (556) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs have covered eight straight ATS in the GSW-SAC divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

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