The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 65-16 SU and 46-33-2 ATS (58.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 at BKN) 

* NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 170-142 SU and 174-129-9 ATS (57.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at NOP) 

* SAN ANTONIO is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the series with Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+5 at MIL) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-17 SU and 30-14-2 ATS in its last 46 games playing on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+2.5 at CLE) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, TORONTO, DETROIT, LA CLIPPERS, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, NEW ORLEANS, LA CLIPPERS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, NEW YORK ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-IND, TOR-NYK, DET-BKN, POR-NOP, LAC-DEN, SAS-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-NOP 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DEN 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 39-38 SU and 45-31-1 ATS (59.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
1/8: NEW ORLEANS vs. Portland
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. POR) 

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 21-17 SU and 24-14 ATS (63.2%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/8: NEW ORLEANS vs. Portland
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs. POR) 

* Over the total was 87-60 (59.2%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straigh tRoad game.
1/8: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-NOP (o/u at 225) 

* Over the total was 52-42 (55.3%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/8: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-PHI (o/u at 221.5) 

* Over the total was 15-5 (75%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/8: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-NOP (o/u at 225) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 37-40 SU and 26-50-1 ATS skid in the last 77 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/8: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs. SAS)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-17 SU and 30-14-2 ATS in its last 46 games playing on 2 Days Rest
1/8: OKLAHOMA CITY at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+2.5 at CLE)

* WASHINGTON is on 10-9 SU and 13-5 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
1/8: WASHINGTON at Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11 at PHI) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 101-67 SU and 101-64-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at NOP)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 172-147 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-189 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-PHI (o/u at 221.5)
UNDER – TOR-NYK (o/u at 232) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 253-133 SU but just 166-208-12 ATS (44.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-8.5 vs. BKN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 256-274 SU and 233-290-7 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5 vs. SAS) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 287-260 SU and 247-286-12 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5 vs. SAS) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 170-142 SU and 174-129-9 ATS (57.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at NOP)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 65-16 SU and 46-33-2 ATS (58.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 at BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 217-265-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU and 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (+2.5 at CLE), CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs. OKC)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 53-68-1 ATS (43.8%) in the next game, including 23-37 ATS (38.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (+2.5 at CLE), CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs. OKC) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+3.4)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +2.5 (+1.5)
3. CHICAGO +6 (+1.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+2.7)
2. MILWAUKEE -5 (+0.3)
3. LA CLIPPERS -2.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +6 (+4.9)
2. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+4.2)
3. PORTLAND +2.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+2.2)
2. NEW YORK -11.5 (+1.3)
3. CLEVELAND -2.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-BKN OVER 212 (+3.0)
2. TOR-NYK OVER 232 (+2.1)
3. WSH-PHI OVER 221.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-DEN UNDER 226.5 (-0.7)
2. OKC-CLE UNDER 230 (-0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+4.1)
2. TORONTO +11.5 (+2.4)
3. CHICAGO +6 (+1.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -11 (+3.9)
2. MILWAUKEE -5 (+2.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS -2.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-BKN OVER 212 (+3.9)
2. TOR-NYK OVER 232 (+3.8)
3. POR-NOP OVER 224.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-IND UNDER 241.5 (-1.8)
2. SAS-MIL UNDER 225 (-1.4)
3. OKC-CLE UNDER 230 (-0.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) CHICAGO at (546) INDIANA
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the CHI-IND rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(547) OKLAHOMA CITY at (548) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the OKC-CLE series at Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games versus CLE
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(549) TORONTO at (550) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the TOR-NYK divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(553) DETROIT at (554) BROOKLYN
* DETROIT is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games versus BKN
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between DET and BKN, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(555) PORTLAND at (556) NEW ORLEANS
* PORTLAND has won all three meetings ATS versus NOP this season (2-1 SU)
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS 

(557) LA CLIPPERS at (558) DENVER
* Under the total is on an extended 20-7-3 run in the last 30 games between LAC and DEN
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(559) SAN ANTONIO at (560) MILWAUKEE
* SAN ANTONIO is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the series with Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

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