Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, October 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs have covered 13 of the last 14 ATS in the head-to-head matchups at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+6.5 at Atlanta)
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the Memphis/Utah series in Utah
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, MIAMI ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): PHX-LAC
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: CHA-HOU UNDER 229.5 (-2.7 difference)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO, MEMPHIS, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, GOLDEN STATE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches: PLAY (on ML)– INDIANA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE
FADE (on ML) – ATLANTA, MIAMI, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, MIAMI ML, PHOENIX ML
These last four NBA betting trend systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-PHI, CHA-HOU, PHX-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-DET, CHA-HOU, CHI-NOP, MEM-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): PHX-LAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY (first couple on Friday)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC SITUATIONAL TRENDS TODAY (first couple on Friday)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY (first one tomorrow 10/24)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +6.5 (+1.9)
2. ORLANDO +2 (+1.7)
3. UTAH +2.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +5 (+3.0)
2(tie). PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.8)
BROOKLYN +6.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+0.7)
2. NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-NOP OVER 226.5 (+3.5)
2. BKN-ATL OVER 222.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-HOU UNDER 229.5 (-2.7)
2. CLE-TOR UNDER 225.5 (-1.4)
3. MEM-UTA UNDER 228 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +2 (+3.5)
2. TORONTO +6.5 (+1.9)
3. DETROIT +5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+2.5)
2. ATLANTA -6.5 (+1.3)
3. HOUSTON -7.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-ATL OVER 222.5 (+2.4)
2. ORL-MIA OVER 208 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-DET UNDER 235 (-3.1)
2. CHA-HOU UNDER 229.5 (-2.5)
3. MIL-PHI UNDER 223 (-2.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(505) INDIANA at (506) DETROIT
* Under the total is 7-2 in the series at Indiana since the start of the 2019 season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 235)
(507) BROOKLYN at (508) ATLANTA
* Underdogs have covered 13 of the last 14 ATS in the head-to-head matchups at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+6.5 at Atlanta)
* BROOKLYN has covered all six head-to-head meetings in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+6.5 at Atlanta)
(509) ORLANDO at (510) MIAMI
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of Orlando-Miami series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-2 vs Orlando)
(511) MILWAUKEE at (512) PHILADELPHIA
* Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at PHI)
(513) CLEVELAND at (514) TORONTO
* Favorites are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the head-to-head meetings at Toronto
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-6.5 at Toronto)
(515) CHARLOTTE at (516) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the head-to-head meetings at Houston since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)
(517) CHICAGO at (518) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 9-2 in the series since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5)
(519) MEMPHIS at (520) UTAH
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings at Utah
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
(521) PHOENIX at (522) LA CLIPPERS
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six games of the series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX (-5 at LA Clippers)
