The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, October 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* PHILADELPHIA is on runs of 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with DET and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups with DET in Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. DET)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 36-17 SU and 34-17-2 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (-6.5 vs. TOR)

* NEW ORLEANS is on a 13-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an away-to-away back-to-back scheduling scenario
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NOP-GSW (o/u at 220) 

NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-54 SU and 88-57-2 ATS (60.7%) in that follow-up try over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-4.5 at WSH) 

NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 66-22 SU and 57-30-1 ATS (65.5%).
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, BOSTON, NEW YORK, ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CHARLOTTE, PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK, ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS, LA CLIPPERS 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE ALL on ML): CHARLOTTE, PHILADELPHIA, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS ML, BROOKLYN ML 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-WSH, TOR-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-PHI, NYK-MIA, POR-LAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 179-119 SU and 173-117 ATS (59.7%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
10/30: CHARLOTTE vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (-6.5 vs. TOR)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 60-29 SU and 54-33-2 ATS (62.1%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
10/30: CHARLOTTE vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (-6.5 vs. TOR)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 36-17 SU and 34-17-2 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
10/30: CHARLOTTE vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (-6.5 vs. TOR)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 65-31 SU and 57-36-3 ATS (61.3%) hosting teams playing a away-to-away back-to-back game over the last two seasons.
10/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. NOP)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 24-36 SU but 35-26-1 ATS (57.4%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4Days game over the last four seasons.
10/30: NEW ORLEANS at Golden State
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 at GSW) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 33-33 SU and 38-28 ATS (57.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
10/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. NOP)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 19-16 SU and 22-13 ATS (62.9%) over last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
10/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. NOP)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 22-14 SU and 24-12 ATS (66.7%) last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
10/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. NOP)

* Over the total was 104-72 (59.1%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
10/30: Over the total in TORONTO-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

* Over the total was 79-61 (56.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
10/30: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)

* Over the total was 82-54 (60.3%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
10/30: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220) 

* Over the total was 51-38 (57.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.
10/30: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

* Over the total was 35-22 (61.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
10/30: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220) 

* Over the total was 42-32 (56.8%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
10/30: Over the total in MEMPHIS-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5) 

* Over the total was 13-4 (76.5%) last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
10/30: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)  

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* ATLANTA is on 6-30 SU and 7-28-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
10/30: FADE ATLANTA at Washington
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-4.5 at WSH) 

* LA CLIPPERS are 17-15 SU but 6-26 ATS in their last 32 games at home playing on 2 Days Rest
10/30: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Portland
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs. POR)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-16 SU and 29-12-1 ATS in its last 42 games playing on 2 Days Rest
10/30: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs. SAS)

* ATLANTA is 39-18 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
10/30: Over the total in ATLANTA-WASHINGTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)

* LA CLIPPERS are 28-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
10/30: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* NEW ORLEANS is on a 13-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
10/30: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 131-44 SU and 107-67-1 ATS (61.5%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-5 vs LAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 66-22 SU and 57-30-1 ATS (65.5%).
System Matches (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at MIA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 174-32 SU but just 90-113-3 ATS (44.3%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE): MEMPHIS (-12 vs BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-69 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 159-132 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-156 (59.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-MEM, SAS-OKC 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 48-82 SU and 51-75-4 ATS (40.5%) slide, including 22-44-2 ATS in the last 68 games and 17-31 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+12 at MEM) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-54 SU and 88-57-2 ATS (60.7%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-4.5 at WSH)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 268-219 (55%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-WSH (o/u at 233), ORL-CHI (o/u at 228.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 241-236 SU and 213-251-11 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+4.5 vs. ATL), CHICAGO (+5.5 vs. ORL), BROOKLYN (+12 at MEM), GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. NOP)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 127-150 SU and 125-145-7 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+12 at MEM)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 149-55 SU and 115-87-2 ATS (56.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-4.5 at WSH), MEMPHIS (-12 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NFL betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 53-15 SU and 41-25-2 ATS (62.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (*if they become -7.5-point favorites or more, -6.5 currently*) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (161-180 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (223-214 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE): DETROIT (+3.5 at PHI)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +5.5 (+2.3)
2. WASHINGTON +5 (+1.4)
3. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CLEVELAND -5 (+0.7)
LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+0.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +5.5 (+1.1)
2. BROOKLYN +12 (+0.6)
3. TORONTO +6.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -5 (+3.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+1.8)
3. BOSTON -6.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-PHI OVER 219 (+2.5)
2. NOP-GSW OVER 219.5 (+2.4)
3. TOR-CHA OVER 225 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-CLE UNDER 225 (-1.6)
2(tie). NYK-MIA UNDER 215 (-1.3)
ORL-CHA UNDER 229 (-1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +6.5 (+1.4)
2. CHICAGO +5.5 (+1.2)
3. WASHINGTON +5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+2.1)
2(tie). NEW YORK -1.5 (+1.1)
CLEVELAND -5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-PHI OVER 219 (+6.4)
2. NOP-GSW OVER 219.5 (+4.4)
3. SAS-OKC OVER 221 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-IND UNDER 235 (-1.3)
2. ORL-CHI UNDER 229 (-0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(543) LA LAKERS at (544) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 8-2 in LAL-CLE matchups at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

(545) BOSTON at (546) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 8-4 ATS versus Boston since the start of the 2022-23 season
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+6.5 vs BOS) 

(549) DETROIT at (550) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on runs of 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with DET and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups with DET in Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DET) 

(551) NEW YORK at (552) MIAMI
* MIAMI has covered four of the last five ATS versus NYK in Miami
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+1.5 vs NYK) 

(553) ORLANDO at (554) CHICAGO
* ORLANDO has covered five straight ATS versus CHI
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-5.5 at CHI) 

(555) BROOKLYN at (556) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the series at Memphis, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226.5) 

(557) SAN ANTONIO at (558) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on runs of 7-1 ATS in the last eight overall meetings with SAS and 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven matchups at Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs SAS) (561) PORTLAND at (562) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 5-0 in the last five of the POR-LAC series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 215.5)

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