The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the Second Round NBA Playoff Game Threes. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

 

These are the top trends and systems off of this report for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON

Second-Round Playoff Trends by Line/Total Range
– Big road favorites win and cover. Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second round road favorites of five points or more are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS (88.9%). Interestingly, there hasn’t been one of these since 2018!
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Second Round Playoff Trends by Game #
– Home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in the last eight Game Threes, stopping a skid of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 4 HOME TEAMS

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 108-115 SU but 115-94-4 ATS (55%), including 83-49-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-7.5 vs NYK)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, DENVER ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, BOSTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-DAL, BOS-CLE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DEN-MIN
PLAY UNDER in: OKC-DAL, BOS-CLE

Second-Round Playoff Series NBA Betting Trends

• There have been 14 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series’ the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

• There have been 19 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower seed winning eight times (53 individual wins).

• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total in +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.

• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.

• There is advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.

• It hasn’t been real detriment to see a first round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.

• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse seeded team had a better second half regular season record, since they have only one once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

• Similarly, worse seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second-round success. Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 108-26 SU and 103-30-1 ATS (77.4%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark. Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 21-104 SU & 26-98-1 ATS (21%) over the last seven seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

– Big road favorites win and cover. Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second-round road favorites of five points or more are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS (88.9%). Interestingly, there hasn’t been one of these since 2018!

System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

– The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 35-17-1 (67.3%!), including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher. In that same span, totals of 227 or less are 48-42 Under (53.3%).
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYK-IND (o/u at 222.5)

Last Game Trends

– Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 8-22 SU and 9-21 ATS (30%) in the follow-up contests in their last 30 playoff tries.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+4 at MIN), FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+3 at DAL), FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

– Teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 19-9 ATS (67.9%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-7.5 vs. NYK)

– Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just a 10-13 SU and 9-14 ATS (39.1%) record over the last three postseasons.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+4 at MIN), FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

– There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10-points or fewer, the follow up second round same series game is 29-16-1 UNDER (64.4%) the total in the L46.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in NYK-IND (o/u at 222.5), PLAY UNDER in OKC-DAL (o/u at 219)

– Second round teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 6-9 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) in the follow-up contest. The last nine of those games have also gone Under the total (100%).
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (+7.5 at IND), also PLAY UNDER in NYK-IND (o/u at 222.5)

– Poor three-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 18-26-1 ATS (40.9%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Trends by Game Number

– Home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) in the last eight Game Threes, stopping a skid of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 4 HOME TEAMS

– Change of venue has changed scoring trend recently – with more Game Twos going Over than not, the scoring pace slows for Game Threes, as they are 16-8 Under (66.7%) in the last 24.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 4 GAMES

– In the last 15 Game Threes featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 12 have gone UNDER the total (80%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: NYK-IND, DEN-MIN

Trends by Seed Number

– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 46-35 SU and 40-40-1 ATS (50%) in their last 81 second-round playoff games.

-#1 seeds are on a 5-14 SU and 7-12 ATS (36.8%) skid as underdogs in the second round.

System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+3 at DAL)

-#2 seeds have been very competitive in the underdog role in the second round, going 21-16 SU and 26-11 ATS (70.3%) in that role since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (+7.5 at IND), PLAY DENVER (+4 at MIN)

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 33-16-1 (67.3%) in the last 50.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-MIN (o/u at 204.5)

– Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 11-32 SU and 14-28-1 ATS (33.3%) as such since 2015.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+8 vs BOS)

– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in the second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 15-33 SU and 23-25 ATS (47.9%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (-7.5 vs. NYK), FADE DALLAS (-3 vs. OKC)

– Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second-round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 8-20 SU and 10-18 ATS (35.7%) when coming off a same-series victory since 2013.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-3 vs OKC)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 62-38 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
5/10 vs New York
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 125-39 SU and 104-60 ATS (63.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, -4 currently)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 108-115 SU but 115-94-4 ATS (55%), including 83-49-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-7.5 vs NYK)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts

NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 251-193 SU but 192-240-12 ATS (44.4%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-4 vs. DEN), FADE CLEVELAND (+8 vs. BOS)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 90-52 SU and 85-55-2 ATS (60.7%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (+4 at MIN)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 115-84 SU and 113-83-3 ATS (57.7%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-4 vs DEN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME 3’s

Game Three NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game 3’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+4.6), 2. NEW YORK +7.5 (+4.1), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY +3 (+0.1)

Game 3’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -4 (+1.0)

Game 3’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+5.0), 2. NEW YORK +7.5 (+4.6), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY +3 (+0.1)

Game 3’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -4 (+1.8)

Game 3’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-CLE OVER 211 (+1.0), 2. DEN-MIN OVER 204.5 (+0.6)

Game 3’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKC-DAL UNDER 219 (-0.7)

Game 3’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+4.9), 2. NEW YORK +7.5 (+4.3)

Game 3’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -4 (+0.8)

Game 3’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-MIN OVER 204.5 (+2.8), 2. BOS-CLE OVER 211 (+0.9)

Game 3’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NYK-IND UNDER 222.5 (-1.0) and OKC-DAL UNDER 219 (-1.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Friday, May 10, 2024

(503) MINNESOTA at (504) DENVER
* MINNESOTA has won six of the last seven ATS in head-to-head series at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(501) INDIANA at (502) NEW YORK
* Favorites have covered 12 of the last 14 ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

Saturday, May 11, 2024

(505) DALLAS at (506) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(507) CLEVELAND at (508) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

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