The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, May 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW YORK

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units, a 14.4% ROI. Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MIL-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIL-IND, PLAY OVER in NYK-PHI

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first-round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 & #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse-seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• The records from the second half of the season have also revealed quality underdogs. When the worst-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of the last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. Three “underdogs” hold this edge for 2024: Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• First-round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately. Over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 40-37 SU and 31-43-1 ATS (41.9%).
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-3 vs NYK)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 20 Unders, 17 Overs – (54.1%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 69-46-3 (60%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series. Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 77-46 SU and 64-59 ATS (52%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 83-71 SU and 69-82-3 ATS (45.7%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower seeded team in a series but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3 vs. NYK), FADE INDIANA (-8 vs. MIL)

• Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 80-143 SU and 94-126-3 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year so far, they are 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (-8 vs MIL)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Sixes are road domination. Road teams in NBA first-round Game Sixes are 26-13 SU and 29-10 ATS (74.4%) in the last 11 seasons. Defense is usually the key, as they are holding home teams to just 97.1 PPG and have gone Under the total in 25 of those 39 contests (64.1%).
System Matches: PLAY BOTH ROAD TEAMS, also PLAY UNDER the TOTAL in BOTH GAMES

• Road teams looking to close out a series in Game Six of the first round are 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) in their last 25 tries. Outright winners are 25-0 ATS in those games.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (+3 at PHI)

Trends by Seed Number

• #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 20-3 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in their last 23.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (+3 at PHI)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

• Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 23-10 SU but 11-20-2 ATS (35.5%) in their last 33 tries.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA ATS (-8 vs MIL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 111-28 SU and 110-29 ATS (78.8%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first-round playoff seasons are 92-16 SU and 89-17-2 ATS (84%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of the Season

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 14-8 SU & 13-9 ATS (59.1%).
5/2 vs Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-8 vs. MIL)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One  DayRest scheduling scenario this season, going 27-26 SU but 19-34 ATS (35.8%).
5/2 at Indiana
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+8 at IND)

* INDIANA is 61-38 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
5/2 vs Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 89-51 SU and 84-54-2 ATS (60.9%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (+3 at PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +8 (+0.6), 2. NEW YORK +3 (+0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA -3 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-PHI UNDER 201 (-0.4), 2. MIL-IND UNDER 214.5 (-0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +8 (+1.1), 2. NEW YORK +3 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NYK-PHI OVER 201 (+5.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIL-IND UNDER 214.5 (-0.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(511) NEW YORK at (512) PHILADELPHIA
* Under the total is 4-2 in the last six of the head-to-head series at PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(513) MILWAUKEE at (514) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games of the series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

* Over the total is 7-0 in the last seven of the series in Indiana
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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