The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the Second Round NBA Playoff Game Fives. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for Game Fives, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Teams that lost big in Game Four, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 14-9 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in their last 23 tries.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-2 vs IND), PLAY MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN), PLAY CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS)

There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 33-16-1 Under (67.3%) the total in the last 50.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIN-DEN, CLE-BOS, DAL-O

There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 18-9 SU but just 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) since 2013 (6-7 SU in the last 13).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15.5 vs CLE)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 132-46 SU and 109-67-2 ATS (61.9%) in their last 178 tries.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-2 vs IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for games as of 12:30 p.m. ET on 5/14. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, DALLAS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing a number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): INDIANA ML, DENVER ML, CLEVELAND ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, CLEVELAND ML, DALLAS ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ALL 4 GAMES

• There have been 14 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series, the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

• There have been 19 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower-seed winning eight times (53 individual wins).

• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total in +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022 when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.

• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.

• There is an advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second-round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.

• It hasn’t been a real detriment to see a first-round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first-round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.

• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse-seeded team had a better second-half regular season record since they have only won once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

• Similarly, worse-seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points are the benchmark for second-round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 111-26 SU and 106-30-1 ATS (77.9%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark. Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 22-110 SU and 28-103-1 ATS (21.4%) over the last seven seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

–  Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 11-6 SU but just 3-14 ATS (17.6%) since 2016. This is in direct contrast to the first-round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 64-43-1 ATS (59.8%) in that span.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15.5 vs CLE)

Last Game Trends

– Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 11-24 SU and 12-23 ATS (34.3%) in the follow-up contests in their last 35 playoff tries.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN), FADE CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS), FADE DALLAS (+4 at OKC)

– Teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-2 vs IND)

– Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just a 12-14 SU and 11-15 ATS (42.3%) record over the last three postseasons.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-2 vs IND)

– There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 33-16-1 Under (67.3%) the total in the last 50.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIN-DEN, CLE-BOS, DAL-OKC

– Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 19-26-1 ATS (42.2%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-2 vs IND)

Trends by Game Number

– Expect Game Fives to be tight. Favorites are 28-11 SU but just 18-21 ATS (46.2%) since 2013. In games with lines of 5.5 points or more, they are just 11-16 ATS (40.7%).
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING ALL FAVORITES ATS (even more so BOSTON -15.5)

– Teams that lost big in Game Four, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 14-9 SU and 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in their last 23 tries.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-2 vs IND), PLAY MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN), PLAY CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS)

Trends by Seed Number

– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 49-36 SU and 42-42-1 ATS (50%) in their last 85 second round playoff games.

– #1 seeds are on an 11-3 SU and ATS (78.6%) at home in the last 2+ seasons in the second round, slowing a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-15.5 vs CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-4 vs. DAL)

– #1 seeds have capitalized on momentum well going 20-13 SU and 19-14 ATS (57.6%) when coming off a same series win.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-15.5 vs. CLE), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-4 vs. DAL)

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 33-18-1 (64.7%) in the last 52.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIN-DEN (o/u at 206)

– Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 12 of their last 37 games while going 13-24 ATS (35.1%).
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN)

– Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 11-34 SU and 15-29-1 ATS (34.1%) as such since 2015.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS)

– The last 14 #4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second round series are just 5-9 SU and ATS (35.7%).
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS)

– Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 11-23 SU and 12-22 ATS (35.3%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS)

– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in the second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 18-34 SU and 25-27 ATS (48.1%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (+2 at NYK), FADE DALLAS (+4 at OKC)

– Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 10-21 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (+2 at NYK)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

– Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (9-7 ATS in the last 16) as compared to at home (7-11 ATS in the last 18).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15.5 vs CLE)

– There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 18-9 SU but just 9-17-1 ATS (34.6%) since 2013 (6-7 SU in the last 13).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15.5 vs CLE)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

NEW YORK has gone 11-7 Under the total (61.1%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
5/14 vs Indiana
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYK (o/u at 217)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 223-153 (59.3%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CLE-BOS (o/u at 206)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 132-46 SU and 109-67-2 ATS (61.9%) in their last 178 tries.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-2 vs IND)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 91-53 SU and 86-56-2 ATS (60.6%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 159-132 SU and 164-119-8 ATS (58%) run.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+15.5 at BOS)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 115-85 SU and 113-84-3 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+2 at NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME FIVES

Game Five NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game 5’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA +2 (+0.9)

Game 5’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+2.1), 2. BOSTON -15.5 (+1.1), 3. DENVER -4 (+0.8)

Game 5’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW YORK -2 (+0.1)

Game 5’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-DEN OVER 206 (+0.9), 2. IND-NYK OVER 217 (+0.7), 3. DAL-OKC OVER 213 (+0.1)

Game 5’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLE-BOS UNDER 206 (-0.4)

Game 5’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA +2 (+0.9)

Game 5’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+2.1), 2. DENVER -4 (+1.2), 3. BOSTON -15.5 (+1.0)

Game 5’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-NYK OVER 217 (+1.6), 2. DAL-OKC OVER 213 (+1.5), 3. MIN-DEN OVER 206 (+1.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

(519) MINNESOTA at (520) DENVER
* Underdogs are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(517) INDIANA at (518) NEW YORK
* Favorites have covered 13 of the last 16 ATS in head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

(523) DALLAS at (524) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(521) CLEVELAND at (522) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

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