The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Playoff Second Round Game Sixes. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Game Sixes, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

– Teams looking to close out a series in Game Six have struggled, going just 8-11 SU and ATS (42.1%) in their last 19 opportunities, including 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) as chalk.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+2.5 at MIN), FADE NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND), FADE DALLAS (-4 vs OKC)

– Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) Games Sixes that have been played the last three playoff seasons have gone Under the total
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

– #2 seeds have not closed out opponents well in the second round, going just 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) when given that chance since 2018.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+2.5 at MIN), FADE NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND)

(529) NEW YORK at (530) INDIANA
* Favorites have covered 14 of the last 17 ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their moneyline plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, NEW YORK, DALLAS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI. Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER ML, NEW YORK ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER ML, NEW YORK ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-IND, OKC-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DEN-MIN, NYK-IND
PLAY UNDER in: OKC-DAL

•  There have been 14 second round series over the last 10 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only two in upset fashion. In all but one of those 20 series, the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

• There have been 19 second-round series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 10 times (64 individual wins) and the lower-seed winning eight times (53 individual wins).

• In the 21 other series where the regular season won-lost total in +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 16-5 in series wins and 73-43 in individual wins. The most recent of those five series losses occurred in 2022, when Dallas edged Phoenix 4-3.

• Excluding the results of the 2020 season which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 2-16 in series and 33-67 in individual games since 2014. Again, Phoenix in 2022 was the last team to lose in this situation.

• There is an advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second-round series record of 8-5 since 2014, with an individual game mark of 38-26.

• It hasn’t been a real detriment to see a first-round series be pushed to seven games for teams in the second round. These teams are 8-8 in series and 47-46 in individual games since 2014. Heading into this season, only two first-round series over the previous three playoff seasons went the distance.

• Don’t overestimate situations when the worse-seeded team had a better second-half regular season record since they have only won once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

• Similarly, worse-seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are just 3-13 in series record and 31-56 in individual games.

Scoring Trends

– It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second-round success. Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 114-26 SU and 108-31-1 ATS (77.7%).

– Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark. Second-round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 22-114 SU and 29-106-1 ATS (21.5%) over the last seven seasons.

Last Game Trends

– Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 12-26 SU and 14-24 ATS (36.8%) in the follow-up contests in their last 38 playoff tries.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+4 at DAL)

– Teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 21-11 ATS (65.6%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN), PLAY INDIANA (-5.5 vs NYK)

– Blowout losses have been demoralizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 15 points or more in one game follow that up with just a 13-14 SU and 12-15 ATS (44.4%) record over the last three postseasons.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN), FADE INDIANA (-5.5 vs NYK)

– Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 20-26-1 ATS (43.5%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+4 at DAL)

Trends by Game Number

– Game Sixes have swung towards underdogs, 15-10 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) since 2014.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+2.5 at MIN), NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (+4 at DAL)

– Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) Game Sixes that have been played the last three playoff seasons have gone Under the total
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

Trends by Seed Number

– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 50-37 SU and 42-44-1 ATS (48.8%) in their last 87 second-round playoff games.

  • #1 seeds are on a 6-15 SU and 8-13 ATS (38.1%) skid as underdogs in the second round.
    System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (+4 at DAL)

-#2 seeds have been very competitive in the underdog role in the second round, going 23-18 SU and 29-12 ATS (70.7%) in that role since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (+2.5 at MIN), PLAY NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND)

-#2 seeds have not closed out opponents well in the second round, going just 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) when given that chance since 2018.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+2.5 at MIN), FADE NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND)

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 33-19-1 (63.5%) in the last 53.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DEN-MIN (o/u at 205)

-#3 seeds are on a phenomenal second-round run of 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) when trying to stave off elimination in a series.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DEN)

– Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in the second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 19-35 SU and 26-28 ATS (48.1%) in their second-round games over the last nine seasons when not matched up against another upset winner.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (-5.5 vs NYK), FADE DALLAS (-4 vs OKC)

– Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 10-22 SU and 12-20 ATS (37.5%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4 vs OKC)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

– Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (9-7 ATS in the last 16) as compared to at home (7-12 ATS in the last 19).

– Teams looking to close out a series in game 6 have struggled, going just 8-11 SU and ATS (42.1%) in their last 19 opportunities, including 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) as chalk.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (+2.5 at MIN), FADE NEW YORK (+5.5 at IND), FADE DALLAS (-4 vs. OKC)

Top team-specific scheduling situation trends

* DALLAS is 16-12 SU and 8-18 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
5/18 vs Oklahoma City
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-4 vs OKC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 126-40 SU and 105-61 ATS (63.3%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (*if they fall into this line range, -4 currently*)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS FOR GAME 6’s

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME SIX

Game Six NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game Six Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW YORK +5.5 (+0.6) and OKLAHOMA CITY +4 (+0.6)

Game Six UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -2.5 (+0.5)

Game Six Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +5.5 (+1.1), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY +4 (+0.6)

Game Six UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -2.5 (+1.3)

Game Six TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NYK-IND OVER 216 (+1.7)

Game Six Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-DAL UNDER 210 (-0.6), 2. DEN-MIN UNDER 205 (-0.3)

Game Six Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +5.5 (+0.7), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY +4 (+0.4)

Game Six UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA -2.5 (+0.1)

Game Six Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-DAL OVER 210 (+2.7), 2. NYK-IND OVER 216 (+2.3), 3. DEN-MIN OVER 205 (+2.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

Thursday, May 16, 2024

(525) DENVER at (526) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the series
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

Friday, May 17, 2024

(529) NEW YORK at (530) INDIANA
* Favorites have covered 14 of the last 17 ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

Saturday, May 18, 2024

(531) OKLAHOMA CITY at (532) DALLAS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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