The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Finals Game One. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Game One, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 23-7 SU and 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round if you recall.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Finals series’ opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late – Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 9-1 SU surge (8-2 ATS, 80%) in NBA Finals Game One. The average margin of victory of in the nine wins has been 13.4 PPG. However, the sole loss did come in 2022 in Boston’s upset win at Golden State.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

– BOSTON is 11-3 SU but 5-10-1 ATS (30.8%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 193-239 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game One as of 12:30 PM ET (on Wednesday 6/6). These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DAL-BOS

On paper, this matchup is not expected to be all that close, with the Celtics favored by 6.5 points in Game One and -210 for the series. That shouldn’t come as a major surprise considering that Boston is a #1 seed that won 64 games in the regular season while Dallas is a #5 that was just 50-32. However, as the Mavericks boast a couple of stars that are capable of putting a team on their back in Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving, so who knows what could or will happen? Game One is slated for Thursday, June 6th, and should the series go seven games, it will wrap up on Sunday, June 23rd. As such you should have plenty of time to digest all of the Finals trends I am about to share.

Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that three of the last five Finals series have been seed upsets, breaking a streak of five straight prior wins by the better seed. Dallas will attempt to run that to four out of six. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are 51-3-2 ATS (94.4%) over the last 10 seasons, although one of the ATS losses did come last season in Denver’s series clinching Game Five victory. This ATS record for outright winners beats every similar study I’ve done in a variety of sports and thus stands as an endorsement for moneyline wagering on underdogs. I’ll get into more of that later.

This is the final part a four-part series, I hope you’ve enjoyed and profited from it. Good luck with your NBA Finals wagering.

As I reasoned in the first three articles of this package, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively which favorites will end a series quickly can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these Finas’ trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• In the last 11 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 7-3 edge in Finals’ wins and a 34-22 game wins edge during that span. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both #1 seeds.

• This will be just the second time in 11 seasons that the East representative had a better regular season record. In that time, the team with the better regular season record is 9-2.

• This will be the ninth time since 2013 that one of the teams won at least 10% more games in the regular season. In those other eight recent series, the series record is 7-1 and the individual game record is 31-15.

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached into the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-29 SU and ATS (19.4%).

Success accompanies reaching the 115-point mark –Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 115 points or more boast a record of 19-3 SU and 16-3-3 ATS over the last eight years. If you recall, the magic number for the conference finals was 116 points.

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 31-26 SU and 27-29-1 ATS (48.2%) since 2013. This includes an 11-16 ATS (40.7%) mark since 2018.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) in the last 18 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Winners cover – Over the last 10 seasons, and 56 games, outright winners have gone 51-3-2 ATS (94.4%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 63 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 33 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 19-11-1 (63.3%) run in the last 31 games.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in DAL-BOS (o/u at 214.5)

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 23-7 SU and 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round if you recall.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Finals series’ opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late – Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 9-1 SU surge (8-2 ATS, 80%) in NBA Finals Game Ones. The average margin of victory of in the nine wins has been 13.4 PPG. However, the sole loss did come in 2022 in Boston’s upset win at Golden State.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Trends by Seed Number (note that this year’s Finals matches a #1 in Boston versus a #5 in Dallas)

Top seeds have been a bankroll drainer – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is just 11-8 SU and 7-10-2 ATS (41.2%).
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs. DAL)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 3-12 SU & 6-8-1 ATS (42.9%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are winless, 0-4 SU and ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (+6.5 at BOS)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for rest of season

– BOSTON is 11-3 SU but 5-10-1 ATS (30.8%) at home this season versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 100 or higher.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 126-44 SU and 105-65 ATS (61.8%) run.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 236-127 SU but just 155-197-11 ATS (44%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 193-239 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-6.5 vs DAL)

Game One NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game One UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -6.5 (+1.4)

Game One UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS +6.5 (+0.1)

Game One TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-BOS OVER 214.5 (+2.0)

Game One UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -6.5 (+0.3)

Game One TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-BOS OVER 214.5 (+3.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

Thursday, June 6, 2024

(501) DALLAS at (502) BOSTON
* BOSTON has won eight of the last 11 ATS in the head-to-head series (including four straight)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

* Under the total is 6-2-1 in the last nine of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR