Opening Round NBA Playoff Best Bets
We have officially made it to the NBA playoffs! One of my favorite things about the playoffs is being able to bet series long prices to take advantage of my opinions and reduce the variance from game-to-game betting in the NBA. Let’s take a look at my favorite series NBA Playoff best bets for Round 1!
Dallas vs. LA Clippers (-110)
This is a matchup that I was hoping would manifest for the last two weeks. I do not trust this Clippers team at all. We saw them have a stretch in the middle of the season where they played excellent basketball, but they were not able to maintain that level to close the season. While they do have Kawhi Leonard, who is a proven playoff commodity, we have seen James Harden and Paul George consistently wilt in the playoffs.
Dallas, on the other hand, is coming into this series playing their best basketball of the season. I loved the moves they made at the deadline to add a second center, which should help them in this matchup versus Ivica Zubac on the inside.
What really sets the Mavs apart is their ability to consistently get good shots at the end of games and the end of the shot clock. With Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on the floor, it creates headaches for opposing defenses since you have two of the best on-ball offensive players in the league. It’s nearly impossible to take both out of a possession since doubling teaming either will leave the other single-teamed.
This is also the best-constructed lineup we’ve seen around Luka Doncic. Since the trade deadline, the Mavs have been a top-10 team in both defense and rebounding, two areas that they struggled with during past playoffs.
NBA Playoff Best Bet: Mavs -110, Mavs in 6 +360
Orlando vs Cleveland (-190)
By all accounts, this Magic team is ahead of schedule. Many would say it’s a good season for them even with a first-round loss to Cleveland. Well, it’s going to be an even better season when they knock them off and advance.
I do not trust this Cavs team at all, which limped into the playoffs with star player Donavan Mitchell missing 15 of the last 22 games of the season with a knee issue. That’s going to be a serious problem for the offense in round one with Jalen Suggs, one of, if not the best, on-ball perimeter defensive players in the league. He is going to cause huge issues for Mitchell’s offense, and this Cavs team can only go as far as Mitchell takes now.
Now, I can’t sit here and just gloss over the Magic’s issues. They also limped home and have offensive issues of their own. Mainly, they tend to get below-par shots off late in games and late-in-clock situations because Banchero is the only creator on the team. Even with that, the price on the series allows me to be more forgiving.
The Magic will need to win this series with defense, and I believe they can. In the regular season, they split the series 2-2. In both Cavs wins, Mitchell dominated, going for 30+, in the losses, he did not play one game and scored 22 in the other. Mitchell is the key, and the Magic have the answer.
NBA Playoff Best Bet: Magic +165. I also like the Under in the later games of this series.
