On Friday, May 23rd, the New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers at Madison Square Garden for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action in the postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Pacers vs. Knicks – Game 2
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York, New York
When: 8:00 pm ET on Friday, May 23rd
Channel: TNT / Max
Pacers vs. Knicks Odds – Game 2
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Tuesday, May 20th at 11:30 am ET)
Moneyline: Knicks -230, Pacers +190
Spread: Knicks -5.5 (-112), Pacers +5.5 (-108)
Total: Over 226.5 (-110), Under 226.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction – Game 2
I probably shouldn’t go picking on the Zig Zag Theory. Our VSiN NBA expert and co-host of Money Moves Jonathan Von Tobel has been tracking it since the start of the postseason, and the loser of the previous game in each playoff series is 35-18-1 against the spread the next game. Obviously, motivation means a lot in the postseason, and there are certain games in which one team can’t afford to lose while the other can’t possibly match that intensity. But that system just isn’t one I’m personally willing to back blindly. In some scenarios, I just can’t wrap my head around one team being a bigger underdog after a win than they were in the game they won. This is one of those scenarios.
The Pacers were getting 4 or 4.5 points in Game 1, but they ended up pulling out one of the most stunning comebacks in the history of basketball. With 2:51 left in that game, the Knicks, who led by as many as 17, had a 99.7% chance of winning. But Aaron Nesmith had other plans. The Indiana wing got hot from 3, and he singlehandedly brought the Pacers back into it. New York then started to help a bit with some missed free throws and poor defense, and the game ultimately ended with Tyrese Haliburton hitting a game-tying 2 as time expired, hitting the Reggie Miller choke celebration and sending Indiana to overtime. From there, the Pacers were able to steal the win and take a 1-0 series lead.
Heading into Game 2, I wouldn’t scoff at anybody that says New York significantly outplayed Indiana for almost four quarters, and the Knicks should cruise if they just play a full 48 minutes. That’s just not what I personally saw. Sure, New York absolutely should have won that game, and I’m still stunned the team coughed it up. But I also thought the Knicks were gassed late in the game, which allowed the Pacers to run Nesmith around and get good uncontested looks late in the fourth. Then, in overtime, Indiana was clearly the fresher team. Maybe some of that was just momentum and adrenaline. That does happen. But the Pacers also tested the Knicks by running when they had the chance, and they consistently applied ball pressure throughout the game. On top of that, it was a physical game, and that might have just taken its toll on New York. And if that’s the case, who’s to say it won’t happen again?
Indiana also had a lot of success targeting Jalen Brunson throughout the game, and that’s not something Rick Carlisle is going to let up on moving forward. Not only is Brunson a weak defender, but forcing him to guard could put him in foul trouble. That’s what happened in Game 1. It could also wear him out, which also happened in Game 1.
I have also been very big on looking at things like expected expected points per shot and Shot Quality, and neither of those numbers showed that New York was clearly the better team than Indiana. Shot Quality had a Shot Quality Score of Knicks 124 – Pacers 120, and NBA Game Report had Indiana with 132.4 expected points while New York had 131.9. Neither of those suggest the Knicks should be favored by 5.5 or 6 in Game 2.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Carlisle is a better X’s-and-O’s coach than Tom Thibodeau, so Indiana might benefit more than New York from having a day off to watch Game 1 film. In fact, under Carlisle, the Pacers are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread in Game 2s. They’re also 57-32-1 ATS when playing only two games in a span of five days. Rest and preparation time has always been kind to this team. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 3-4 ATS in Game 2s under Thibodeau. They’re also 3-4 both SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series.
There’s simply a lot to like with Indiana heading into Game 2, and I’m not turning away from the Pacers just because the Knicks “want to win.” Indiana wants to win too! Also, the Knicks can win without winning by six or more.
Bet: Pacers +6 (-110)
