On Thursday, June 5th, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers at the Paycom Center for Game 1 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Pacers vs. Thunder – Game 1
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:30 pm ET on Thursday, June 5th
Channel: ABC
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds – Game 1
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Wednesday, June 4th at 7:00 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -410, Pacers +320
Spread: Thunder -9.5 (-108), Pacers +9.5 (-112)
Total: Over 231 (-112), Under 231 (-108)
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction – Game 1
I don’t really see the Pacers finding a way to win this series, and I noted that in my NBA Finals series preview — despite the fact that I took the Over on games. But can we let the Pacers play a game before leaving them for dead? While I do think this is a series in which the Thunder will prove to be too good — and tough — defensively, I do think the Game 1 spread is out of control.
Since the start of the postseason, the Pacers are 10-5 against the spread. That includes a 6-2 ATS record on the road. So, while the Thunder are 7-2 ATS at home in these playoffs, I don’t think the visitor will be rattled here. If anything, I think Indiana will be somewhat comfortable. This season, the Pacers are 7-1 both straight-up and ATS when playing with three or more days of rest, and that speaks to Rick Carlisle’s ability to get his team prepared with extra time. That’s also why they’re 3-0 both SU and ATS in Game 1s in these playoffs. Carlisle’s teams are also 19-10-1 ATS in Game 1s in his career. Also, for anybody that thinks the Pacers are going to roll over against an elite team like the Thunder, how about the fact that Indiana is 32-15 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 70% or higher under Carlisle?
Ignoring the trends, there’s also a pretty significant math advantage for the Pacers in this series. The Thunder have been getting by just fine without the 3-ball, but Indiana is first in the postseason in 3-point percentage (40.1%). Oklahoma City is down at 13th (33.6%). That doesn’t mean the Pacers have been knocking down way more than the Thunder. They’re making 13.4 per game in the playoffs while the Thunder are making 12.6 per game. But as Dan Karpuc noted in his excellent series player prop primer, Oklahoma City is giving up 12.4 corner 3 attempts per game in the playoffs. Well, if the Thunder give up some of those quality looks to the Pacers, they will make them pay. And Tyrese Haliburton, who processes the game at a high level, will surely be looking to find his guys those shots in Game 1. That means there’s a chance Indiana does bombard Oklahoma City with triples.
Another thing to like about Indiana is that the team has a turnover rate of just 12.7% since the start of the postseason. Only two teams have a better number than that, and the Pacers were also the third-best team at taking care of the ball during the regular season. What that means is that Indiana’s ball handlers shouldn’t vomit all over themselves in the face of pressure the way Minnesota did. And that’s definitely where it’s nice to have several guys that can handle the ball. One of them is Andrew Nembhard, who could bring the ball up quite often in this series. Carlisle had other players get the ball up the floor in the regular-season meeting with Oklahoma City, taking some pressure off Haliburton and allowing him to rest his legs.
Realistically, if the Pacers do a decent job of avoiding turnovers, while also knocking down some 3s, they should be able to avoid losing this game by double digits. We can hype the Thunder up all we want, and they undoubtedly deserve praise for the way they’ve performed on both ends of the floor this year — in both the regular season and the postseason, but Oklahoma City hasn’t been in this spot. This is new to both of these teams, and you have no idea what that will mean in the first game of the series. In fact, the only one that knows what to expect is Carlisle, who coached Dallas to a title in 2011 and won one as a player with Boston in 1986. Early in the series, I’m expecting Carlisle’s experience and X’s-and-O’s brilliance to shine.
Bet: Pacers +9.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
