On Sunday, June 22nd, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals. Oklahoma City opened this series as a -750 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, but here we are. The entire NBA season comes down to this one game. The atmosphere at the Paycom Center is going to be electric for this one, and all we can hope for is another competitive game. Make sure you keep reading for some in-depth analysis on the matchup, and come back to the VSiN website to check out the work of my talented colleagues. We’ll also be talking about this game in depth on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Pacers vs. Thunder – Game 7
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:00 pm ET on Sunday, June 22nd
Channel: ABC
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds – Game 7
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Saturday, June 14th at 12:00 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -290, Pacers +235
Spread: Thunder -7.5 (-110), Pacers +7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction – Game 7
Heading into Game 6, it seemed unlikely that Tyrese Haliburton would be in a position to help the Pacers win. It was reported right around tip-off that Haliburton’s calf injury would be a multi-week injury if it occurred during the regular season. However, Haliburton wasn’t willing to be on the sidelines as Indiana’s season ended. With that in mind, the Pacers got to work in treating him and getting him as prepared as possible. Well, whatever they did worked. Haliburton had 14 points and five assists in 23 minutes of action, and he didn’t look too compromised in a 17-point victory. Was he moving as well as usual? Absolutely not. But Haliburton was able to push the tempo when he needed to, was knocking down triples and was also getting himself to the basket — even if that meant favoring his left side a little bit. Now, as we look at Game 7, it feels like we have to treat Indiana like a healthy team — and basketball fans shouldn’t want it any other way.
We haven’t had a Game 7 in the NBA Finals since LeBron James and the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in 2016. That also happened to be the first time a road team won a Game 7 in the NBA Finals since 1978. The drama heading into this game is simply at an all-time high, especially when considering the fact that a Pacers win would mean the biggest upset in league history.
It won’t be hard to find Thunder backers in this game. Oklahoma City has a home net rating of +20.7 in the postseason. The Thunder also happen to be way more talented than the Pacers, and they have responded well to losses all throughout these playoffs. But I just don’t trust Oklahoma City’s offense.
The Thunder are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season when looking at offensive rating, and they also had their highest turnover percentage of the year. And really this wasn’t just a one-off. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have had massive games throughout the playoffs, the outside help hasn’t consistently been there. Chet Holmgren is averaging just 11.3 points per game on 35.3% shooting from the floor and 11.8% shooting from 3 in this series. And guys like Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein — along with all of the bench players — seem to disappear every other night. The team also isn’t taking, or making, enough 3s. That makes it incredibly difficult to beat a good 3-point shooting team.
Of course, playing at home could help the supporting cast find some confidence, which is exactly what we’ve seen over the last month or so. But I tend to think that the pressure of winning a do-or-die Game 7 will be somewhat similar to the crippling pressure that comes with trying to win a playoff game on the road. That said, I don’t anticipate this Oklahoma City team feeling it up from 3, and I’m not sure I even see multiple players finding any sort of efficiency.
I bet the Thunder are going to do more to try and target Haliburton as a defender in this game, as that was something the team didn’t do enough of in Game 6. But the Pacers have been extremely connected defensively for most of the year, and they played one of their best defensive games in Game 6. They’ll help Haliburton when they need to, and they’ll do it without sacrificing the integrity of their defensive scheme. So, I’m not sure that’s going to be enough for Oklahoma City, and I also think that straying too far away from what you want to do can be a dangerous proposition.
If the Thunder don’t get it going offensively, they’ll be putting a lot on the defense. Obviously, this is considered one of the best defensive teams of all time, so that isn’t the worst thing in the world. But the Pacers shredded this defense in Game 6. Indiana made good decision after good decision. The team was extremely unselfish, passing the ball 107 more times than the Thunder. The Pacers players also did really well in attacking individually in Game 6, with Pascal Siakam, TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard all cooking when they needed to. I also thought Indiana was brilliant about going to quick hit-ahead passes to take some pressure off Haliburton as a ball handler.
It has just been evident throughout this series that Indiana’s offensive identity is extremely strong, and that makes it really easy to believe in Rick Carlisle’s team to execute at a higher level than this shaky Oklahoma City team. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Pacers will win, but it does make me trust them to keep this close. It’s also hard not to like the fact that Carlisle is on the sidelines, in general. He has won a title as both a player and a coach, and he has been out-coaching Mark Daigneault throughout this series. I don’t see that changing in Game 7, especially with Daigneault not even having a solidified rotation heading into the final game of the year.
Let’s also acknowledge the fact that Game 7s in the NBA Finals have historically been dogfights. The last six Game 7s have been decided by seven or fewer points, and only four of the 19 Game 7s in NBA Finals history have been decided by double digits. And honestly, we haven’t even seen many double-digit leads in these games — at any point. I don’t see that changing here.
Oklahoma City might have looked like a dominant team all season, but Indiana has shown that the gap between these two in a postseason setting is very small. The only thing that has really changed that has been high-turnover games by the Pacers. When they’re sloppy, the Thunder — who are the best turnover-creating team in the league — can take advantage. But I think Indiana will play a clean game. The attention to detail with this group is too strong. So, I grabbed 8.5 at -125 — a price I bought up to and is still available — but I would play this at 7.5 if I had to. I’m also taking some moneyline. The Pacers can win this game.
Bet: Pacers +8.5 (-125 – 1.5 units) & Pacers ML (+260 – 0.5 units)
