Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* INDIANA is 24-6 SU and ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7.5 at PHI)
* NBA teams coming off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 164-72 SU and 136-96-4 ATS (58.6%) (sub-system: 79-24 SU and 65-34-4 ATS (65.7%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-14.5 at WSH)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 45-15 SU and 40-18-2 ATS (69%) in their last 60 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at CHA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 13-23 SU and 12-23-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-14.5 at WSH), ATLANTA (+7.5 at DET), UTAH (+7.5 at MEM)
* INDIANA is 24-6 SU and ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Mar ’21
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7.5 at PHI)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 82-60 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL SEVEN GAMES TONIGHT
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(551) CLEVELAND at (552) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 3-0 in the CLE-WSH series since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-WSH (o/u at 242.5)
(553) ATLANTA at (554) DETROIT
* Road teams have covered all nine meetings between Atlanta and Detroit since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs IND)
(555) UTAH at (556) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Jazz-Grizzlies set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-MEM (o/u at 242.5)
(557) BROOKLYN at (558) DALLAS
* Road teams have covered six straight ATS in the BKN-DAL non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+7.5 at DAL)
(559) MINNESOTA at (560) GOLDEN STATE
* MINNESOTA is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 at GSW)
(583) CHICAGO at (584) CHARLOTTE
* Favorites are on a 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS run in the CHI-CHA series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at CHA)
(585) INDIANA at (586) PHILADELPHIA
* Underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Pacers-76ers series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7.5 at PHI)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-90 SU and 128-84-3 ATS (60.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 43-13 Over (76.8%) surge in the last 56 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-CHA (spread +3.5, total 229.5)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-187 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 324-241 (57.5%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CLE-WSH (spread +14.5, total 242.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams coming off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 164-72 SU and 136-96-4 ATS (58.6%) (sub-system: 79-24 SU and 65-34-4 ATS (65.7%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-14.5 at WSH)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 316-242 SU but 251-292-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): MEMPHIS (-7.5 vs UTA), GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs MIN)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 160-194 SU and 155-195-4 ATS (44.3%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-7.5 vs BKN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 359-315 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-MEM (o/u at 242.5)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 168-110 SU and 159-112-7 ATS (58.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs MIN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 45-15 SU and 40-18-2 ATS (69%) in their last 60 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 127-87-2 (59.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-CHA (o/u at 229.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 93-101 SU but 110-82-3 ATS (57.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 282-325-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 33-144 SU and 77-94-6 ATS (45%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-3.5 at CHA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, INDIANA, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – UTA-MEM
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +7.5 (+2.0)
2. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+1.4)
3. ATLANTA +7.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -7.5 (+2.1)
2. PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (+2.0)
3. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +7.5 (+2.0)
2. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+1.7)
3. ATLANTA +7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -14.5 (+1.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (+0.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-PHI OVER 224.5 (+1.8)
2. BKN-DAL OVER 221.5 (+0.5)
3. ATL-DET OVER 232.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-MEM UNDER 243.5 (-5.6)
2. CHI-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-1.2)
3. CLE-WSH UNDER 242.5 (-0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +7.5 (+2.1)
2. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+1.3)
3. UTAH +7.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+3.4)
2. CLEVELAND -14.5 (+2.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (+1.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-CHA OVER 228.5 (+5.0)
2. BKN-DAL OVER 221.5 (+4.1)
3. IND-PHI OVER 224.5 (+2.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-MEM UNDER 243.5 (-5.8)
2. MIN-GSW UNDER 231.5 (-3.1)
3. CLE-WSH UNDER 242.5 (-1.2)
