The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 71-27 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-CLE (o/u at 240.5), OKC-MIN (o/u at 231.5) 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 53-63 SU and 41-73-2 ATS (36%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHI) 

* In WC Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 14-18 SU and 23-9 ATS (71.9%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+8.5 vs OKC) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* BOSTON is 15-2 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
* MIAMI is 14-4 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenario since Feb 2023

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 99-77 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System/Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BOS (o/u at 231.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 15-24 SU and 15-23-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four easons
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 at ATL) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 14-6 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-ATL (o/u at 239.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 50-14 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 71-27 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 135-75 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-CLE (o/u at 240.5), OKC-MIN (o/u at 231.5) 

* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 43-21 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 29-13 Under the total vs. teams in 3rdin4Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-NYK (o/u at 228.5), SAS-ATL (o/u at 239.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 21-10 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 228.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(539) MIAMI at (540) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings with Miami but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 vs MIA) 

(541) PHILADELPHIA at (542) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the 76ers-Knicks divisional rivalry at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 228.5) 

(543) CHICAGO at (544) CLEVELAND
* Home teams are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 of the CHI-CLE divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs CHI) 

(545) SAN ANTONIO at (546) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 7-0 ATS in the last seven of the SAS-ATL non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs SAS) 

(547) OKLAHOMA CITY at (548) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 of the OKC-MIN divisional series at the Target Center
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+8.5 vs OKC)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 91-33 SU and 77-54-3 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHI) 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 23-15 Over (60.5%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-CLE (o/u at 240.5) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 14-18 SU and 23-9 ATS (71.9%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+8.5 vs OKC) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 28-10 (73.7%) rate in the last 38 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MIN (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 288-161 SU but just 186-250-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHI)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 106-66 SU and 101-68-3 ATS (59.8%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs CHI) 

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 53-63 SU and 41-73-2 ATS (36%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 283-326-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, CLEVELAND ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-CLE, SAS-ATL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-BOS
UNDER – CHI-CLE

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +6.5 (+1.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.0)
3. MINNESOTA +7.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +7.5 (+3.2)
2. MIAMI +6.5 (+2.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+0.7)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-BOS OVER 229.5 (+2.8)
2. CHI-CLE OVER 240.5 (+0.7)
3. SAS-ATL OVER 239.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-NYK UNDER 228.5 (-2.1)
2. OKC-MIN UNDER 232.5 (-1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). MINNESOTA +7.5 (+2.2)
PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+2.2)
3. ATLANTA +2.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-BOS OVER 229.5 (+4.3)
2. CIH-CLE OVER 240.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-NYK UNDER 228.5 (-4.5)
2. OKC-MIN UNDER 232.5 (-3.4)
3. SAS-ATL UNDER 239.5 (-1.7)

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