The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In EC Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days rest or more are 20-6 to the Over (76.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-ORL (o/u at 230.5), MIA-ATL (o/u at 247.5) 

* MEMPHIS is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games with non-conference opponent Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs MIL) 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 89-37 SU and 76-49-1 ATS (60.8%).
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at POR)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 42-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-WSH (o/u at 225.5), MIL-MEM (o/u at 228.5), DET-UTA (o/u at 243.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 3-19 SU and 5-17 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Apr 2022
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at ORL)

* LA CLIPPERS are 17-7 Under the total playing in 4th in 10+ Days games since Jan 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-POR (o/u at 226.5) 

* MIAMI is 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Jun 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at ATL) 

* WASHINGTON is 19-6 Over the total playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Dec 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-WSH (o/u at 225.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) TORONTO at (502) WASHINGTON
* TORONTO is 12-3 SU and ATS in the last 15 games with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-6.5 at WSH)

(503) MIAMI at (504) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Heat-Hawks divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 247.5) 

(505) CHARLOTTE at (506) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 10-1 SU and ATS in the last 11 matchups with Southeast foe Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs CHA) 

(507) BOSTON at (508) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games hosting Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+8.5 vs BOS) 

(509) PHILADELPHIA at (510) CHICAGO
* Road teams are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the PHI-CHI series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at CHI) 

(511) MILWAUKEE at (512) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games with non-conference opponent Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs MIL) 

(513) PHOENIX at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 12-4 in the last 16 of the PHX-NOP set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-NOP (o/u at 238.5) 

(515) DETROIT at (516) UTAH
* DETROIT is 5-0 ATS in the last five trips to Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-9.5 at UTA) 

(517) LA CLIPPERS at (518) PORTLAND
* LA CLIPPERS are 5-1 ATS in the last six trips to Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at POR)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 127-93 SU and 130-87-3 ATS (59.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at POR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 89-37 SU and 76-49-1 ATS (60.8%).
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at POR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 45-19 Over (70.3%) surge in the last 64 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-POR (spread +1.5, total 226.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 22-10 SU and 21-9-2 ATS (70%) since early-March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs MIA) 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days rest or more are 20-6 to the Over (76.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-ORL (o/u at 230.5), MIA-ATL (o/u at 247.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 166-75 SU and 137-100-4 ATS (57.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at CHI) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 367-321 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHI (o/u at 240.5), DET-UTA (o/u at 243.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 321-335 SU and 294-354-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at POR) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 183-198 SU and 171-200-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at ORL), LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 129-90-2 (58.9%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-ATL (o/u at 247.5), BOS-IND (o/u at 222.5), DET-UTA (o/u at 243.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 96-102 SU but 113-83-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs MIA), UTAH (+9.5 vs DET) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, DETROIT, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, CHICAGO ML, PORTLAND ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-WSH, MIA-ATL, CHA-ORL, BOS-IND, PHI-CHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – PHI-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ATL, BOS-IND

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+3.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+2.6)
3. MILWAUKEE +5.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +1.5 (+2.9)
2. MIAMI +3.5 (+2.7)
3. CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -8.5 (+2.0)
2. DETROIT -9.5 (+1.8)
3. TORONTO -6.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-WSH OVER 224.5 (+2.7)
2. CHA-ORL OVER 230.5 (+2.1)
3. DET-UTA OVER 243.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-MEM UNDER 228.5 (-3.7)
2. PHI-CHI UNDER 240.5 (-2.9)
3. MIA-ATL UNDER 248.5 (-2.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+5.1)
2. MILWAUKEE +5.5 (+3.2)
3. PORTLAND +1.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORLANDO -5.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-WSH OVER 224.5 (+5.7)
2. LAC-POR OVER 227.5 (+2.1)
3. CHA-ORL OVER 230.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-MEM UNDER 228.5 (-4.4)
2. PHI-CHI UNDER 240.5 (-3.5)
3. MIA-ATL UNDER 248.5 (-2.8)

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