Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 16-2-1 in the last 19 of the Bucks-Pelicans non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NOP (o/u at 223.5)
* NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 94-64 SU and 96-61-1 ATS (61.1%) in their last 158 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+1.5 at WSH)
* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 9-34 SU and 15-27-1 ATS (35.7%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+14.5 at MIN)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 18-24 SU and 15-26-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Home games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 31-11 SU and 26-13-3 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs DAL), NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs MIL)
* NBA teams playing on road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 29-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4thStraightHome games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-CHA (o/u at 230.5), DAL-MIN (o/u at 239.5), LAC-LAL (o/u at 225.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 112-89 Under the total vs. teams in 3rdin8+Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL NINE GAMES TONIGHT
* LA LAKERS are 10-2 Over the total (83%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
* LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 Under the total playing in 4th in 10+ Days games since Jan ’24
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in LAC-LAL (o/u at 225.5)
* DALLAS is just 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+14.5 at MIN)
* MILWAUKEE is 6-21 SU and 6-20-1 ATS playing in 4th Straight Road games since February 2021
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at NOP)
* MILWAUKEE is 20-7 Under the total (26%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-NOP (o/u at 223.5)
* INDIANA is 24-12 SU and 26-10 ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since March 2021
* WASHINGTON is 4-19 SU and 6-17 ATS (26.1%) vs. the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, currently scoring <114 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+1.5 at WSH)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(521) UTAH at (522) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four of the UTA-MEM series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 at MEM)
(523) INDIANA at (524) WASHINGTON
* Under the total has converted in all three matchups between Indiana and Washington this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-WSH (o/u at 229.5)
(525) CLEVELAND at (526) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Cavs-Hornets set
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 at CHA)
(529) MIAMI at (530) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Heat-Hawks divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 244.5)
(531) MILWAUKEE at (532) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 16-2-1 in the last 19 of the Bucks-Pelicans non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NOP (o/u at 223.5)
* Home teams are 7-2 SU and 8-1 in the last nine of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-3.5 vs MIL)
(533) BROOKLYN at (534) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the BKN-OKC set since March 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18.5 vs BKN)
(535) LA CLIPPERS at (536) LA LAKERS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of Clippers-Lakers same-city series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-LAL (o/u at 225.5)
(537) DENVER at (538) PORTLAND
* Over the total is on a 6-1 surge in the last seven of the Nuggets-Trail Blazers divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-POR (o/u at 241.5)
NBA Post-All-Star Break Trends
The following handicapping information details betting trends for teams through Sunday in the first week/weekend coming out of the All-Star break. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
* In PASB games with totals >= 235, Under the total is on a 29-13-3 (69%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-MEM (o/u at 235.5), DAL-MIN (o/u at 239.5), MIA-ATL (o/u at 244.5), DEN-POR (o/u at 241.5)
* In PASB games, teams on winning or losing streaks of 4+ games that are playing as underdogs are 1-25 SU and 7-19 ATS (26.9%) in the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+14.5 at MIN)
ALSO WATCH FOR MEMPHIS vs UTA (-1.5 CURRENTLY)
* In PASB games, divisional favorites are 24-7 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%) in the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-3.5 at ATL), LA LAKERS (-7.5 vs LAC), DENVER (-1.5 at POR)
* In their first PASB game, favorites boasting above-average defensive stats (<= 113.5 PPG allowed) have gone 34-14 SU and 29-18-1 ATS (61.7%) in the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18.5 vs BKN)
* In PASB games, teams playing in the A2A scheduling situation are just 2-13 SU and 3-11-1 ATS (21.4%) in the last four seasons, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite!
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+1.5 at WSH), BROOKLYN (+18.5 at OKC), DENVER (-1.5 at POR)
* In the last 24 PASB non-conference games, Eastern Conference teams have gone 18-9 SU and 22-5 ATS (81.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at NOP), BROOKLYN (+18.5 at OKC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 134-106 SU and 136-101-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (+2.5 at MEM), INDIANA (+1.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 94-41 SU and 81-53-1 ATS (60.4%).
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR INDIANA at WSH (+1.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-106 (56%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 247-209 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 337-265 (56%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-MIN (spread -13.5, total 239.5), BKN-OKC (spread -18.5, total 212.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, home teams on two days’ rest or more are 21-9 to the Over (70%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 245.5)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-20 SU and 27-11 ATS (71.1%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs DEN)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 97-65 SU and 87-73-2 ATS (54.4%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs DAL)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 174-217 SU and 168-219-4 ATS (43.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at NOP)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 388-336 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-MIN (o/u at 239.5), MIA-ATL (o/u at 245.5)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 193-169 SU and 198-154-10 ATS (56.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at NOP)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 178-118 SU and 167-122-7 ATS (57.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 at CHA)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going OVER the total at a 106-72 (59.6%) rate since 2021, including 51-29 (63.8%) to the OVER in the L80.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-OKC (o/u at 212.5)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 94-64 SU and 96-61-1 ATS (61.1%) in their L158 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+1.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4-points or more versus below-.500 teams are 51-12 SU and 39-24 ATS (61.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-100-2 (58%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): UTA-MEM (o/u at 236.5), DAL-MIN (o/u at 239.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 9-34 SU and 15-27-1 ATS (35.7%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+14.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 110-125 SU but 131-102-3 ATS (56.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-2.5 vs UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 298-343-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 37-155 SU and 83-103-6 ATS (44.6%).
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+14.5 at MIN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UTAH, CLEVELAND, MIAMI, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UTAH, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS ML, MINNESOTA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-MEM, IND-WSH, MIA-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – CLE-CHA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-OKC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ATL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +1.5 (+3.2)
2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+2.9)
3. DALLAS +14.5 (+2.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+3.0)
2. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+1.4)
3. MIAMI -3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +1.5 (+3.0)
2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+2.4)
3. DALLAS +14.5 (+2.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+5.2)
2. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+2.5)
3. DENVER -1.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-MEM OVER 235.5 (+3.2)
2. LAC-LAL OVER 225.5 (+0.7)
3. IND-WSH OVER 229.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-CHA UNDER 230.5 (-2.2)
2. DEN-POR UNDER 241.5 (-0.9)
3. MIA-ATL UNDER 243.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +14.5 (+4.3)
2. INDIANA +1.5 (+3.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+3.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+2.2)
2. LA LAKERS -7.5 (+1.8)
3. MIAMI -3.5 (+1.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-WSH OVER 229.5 (+3.7)
2. UTA-MEM OVER 235.5 (+2.5)
3. BKN-OKC OVER 212.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-CHA UNDER 230.5 (-4.5)
2. DEN-POR UNDER 241.5 (-2.9)
3. MIL-NOP UNDER 223.5 (-1.9)
