Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams are 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Pelicans-Pacers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-3.5 vs NOP)
* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 328-342 SU and 302-360-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+4.5 at HOU)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: WSH-SAC UNDER 233.5 (projections have total at 228.3)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 23-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-HOU (o/u at 221.5)
* BROOKLYN is 15-7 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BKN (o/u at 226.5)
* SACRAMENTO is 7-13 SU and 5-15 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-7.5 vs WSH)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(519) CHICAGO at (520) BROOKLYN
* Home teams are 8-2 SU and ATS in the CHI-BKN series since the start of 2023, including four straight SU and ATS wins by Brooklyn at home
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1.5 vs CHI)
(521) NEW ORLEANS at (522) INDIANA
* Home teams are 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 of the NOP-IND non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-3.5 vs NOP)
(523) CLEVELAND at (524) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is on a 10-1 streak in the Cavs-76ers set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 232.5)
(525) LA CLIPPERS at (526) TORONTO
* Over the total is 3-1 in the last four meetings between LAC and TOR at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-TOR (o/u at 215.5)
(527) MINNESOTA at (528) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Twolves-Rockets series at Toyota Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-HOU (o/u at 221.5)
(529) WASHINGTON at (530) SACRAMENTO
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight games between Washington and Sacramento at Golden 1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SAC (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 175-66 SU and 141-99-1 ATS (58.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs MIN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-99 SU and 133-94-3 ATS (58.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 at IND)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 297-165 SU but just 192-257-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHICAGO at BKN, +1.5 CURRENTLY
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 326-252 SU but 263-300-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (-7.5 vs WSH)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 170-208 SU and 165-209-4 ATS (44.1%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+2.5 vs LAC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 375-326 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SAC (o/u at 233.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 328-342 SU and 302-360-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+4.5 at HOU)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 188-202 SU and 176-204-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+2.5 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+4.5 at HOU)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA CLIPPERS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-PHI, CHI-BKN, MIN-HOU, WSH-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – LAC-TOR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SAC
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +1.5 (+4.8)
2(tie). CHICAGO +1.5 (+1.7)
MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +1.5 (+4.8)
2. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+2.6)
3. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+0.6)
2. HOUSTON -4.5 (+0.5)
3. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-HOU OVER 222.5 (+0.6)
2. LAC-TOR OVER 215.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-SAC UNDER 233.5 (-2.6)
2. NOP-IND UNDER 241.5 (-1.9)
3. CLE-PHI UNDER 232.5 (-1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +1.5 (+5.2)
2. CHICAGO +1.5 (+2.4)
3. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -4.5 (+2.0)
2. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-PHI OVER 232.5 (+3.8)
2. MIN-HOU OVER 222.5 (+2.9)
3. CHI-BKN OVER 225.5 (+1.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-SAC UNDER 233.5 (-5.2)
2. NOP-IND UNDER 241.5 (-4.4)
3. LAC-TOR UNDER 215.5 (-1.7)
