The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is on an extended 21-3 run in the last 24 of the Mavericks-Trail Blazers series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-POR (o/u at 232.5) 

* Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 60-99 SU and 64-90-5 ATS (41.6%) slide, including 35-59-3 ATS in the last 97 games and 20-39 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+1.5 vs ORL), GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at BKN) 

* DENVER is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 trips to South Beach
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at MIA) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* MILWAUKEE is 5-20 SU and 5-19-1 ATS playing in 4th Straight Road games since February 2021
* CHARLOTTE is 9-35 SU and 14-29-1 ATS playing in 2 Days Rest scenario since Mar 2022
Trends Match: 1 FADE of MILWAUKEE, 1 FADE of CHARLOTTE 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 45-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

* ATLANTA is 129-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-OKC (o/u at 235.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 12-7 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-BKN (o/u at 221.5) 

* HOUSTON is 118-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-HOU (o/u at 221.5) 

* MIAMI is 21-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-MIA (o/u at 245.5) 

* ORLANDO is 110-80 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 220.5) 

* PORTLAND is 26-29 SU but 37-16 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 vs DAL)

* PORTLAND is 68-38 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-POR (o/u at 232.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 54-39 SU and 50-42 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS (+2.5 at POR), PHOENIX (-10.5 at WSH), ORLANDO (-1.5 at TOR), ATLANTA (+16.5 at OKC) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(549) MILWAUKEE at (550) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the Bucks-Hornets series at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

(551) PHOENIX at (552) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Suns-Wizards non-conference set at Capital One Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-WSH (o/u at 233.5) 

(553) ORLANDO at (554) TORONTO
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the ORL-TOR series, but did go Over last time
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 220.5) 

(555) DENVER at (556) MIAMI
* DENVER is 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 trips to South Beach
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at MIA)

(557) GOLDEN STATE at (558) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 12-4 ATS versus Golden State since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs GSW) 

(559) MINNESOTA at (560) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 14-3 in the MIN-CHI non-conference set since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CHI (o/u at 242.5) 

(561) ATLANTA at (562) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 13-1-1 in the Hawks-Thunder series in Oklahoma City since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-OKC (o/u at 236.5) 

(563) CLEVELAND at (564) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 1-6 SU but 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs CLE) 

(565) INDIANA at (566) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 3-1-1 in the IND-HOU series since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-HOU (o/u at 221.5) 

(567) NEW YORK at (568) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites have won and covered all six meetings between NYK and NOP since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-8.5 at NOP)

* Under the total has converted in the last five of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-NOP (o/u at 246.5) 

(569) DALLAS at (570) PORTLAND
* Over the total is on an extended 21-3 run in the DAL-POR series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-POR (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 127-100 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 233-190 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-249 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-WSH (spread +10.5, total 233.5), ATL-OKC (spread -16.5, total 236.5), IND-HOU (spread -15.5, total 221.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 60-99 SU and 64-90-5 ATS (41.6%) slide, including 35-59-3 ATS in the last 97 games and 20-39 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+1.5 vs ORL), GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at BKN)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 178-104 SU but 129-149-4 ATS (46.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at BKN) 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 93-61-1 (60.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 220.5) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 99-65-1 ATS (60.4%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+15.5 at HOU) 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 166-76 SU and 137-101-4 ATS (57.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-6.5 at CHI)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 292-162 SU but just 189-252-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-8.5 at NOP)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 319-247 SU but 255-296-15 ATS (46.3%) over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 vs MIL), BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs GSW) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 370-322 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-TOR (o/u at 220.5) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 186-199 SU and 173-202-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-10.5 at WSH) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 79-56 SU and 81-53-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 135 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 vs DAL) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 97-104 SU but 115-84-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+16.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 283-328-4 ATS (46.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 34-145 SU and 78-95-6 ATS (45.1%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+15.5 at HOU)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4 point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, NEW ORLEANS, PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX, ORLANDO, DENVER, GOLDEN STATE, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January w023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE, MINNESOTA, SAN ANTONIO, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO, PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-WSH, ORL-TOR, ATL-OKC, DAL-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – DAL-POR

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +2.5 (+3.6)
2. TORONTO +1.5 (+3.0)
3. CHICAGO +6.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -16.5 (+2.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +2.5 (+4.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+1.3)
3(tie). TORONTO +1.5 (+1.1)
CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -10.5 (+1.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+0.5)
3. HOUSTON -15.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-BKN OVER 221.5 (+2.8)
2. DAL-POR OVER 230.5 (+2.5)
3. ORL-TOR OVER 220.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-CHI UNDER 242.5 (-2.9)
2. MIL-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-2.4)
3. CLE-SAS UNDER 242.5 (-1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +2.5 (+3.5)
2. CHICAGO +6.5 (+3.4)
3. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+2.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -16.5 (+2.4)
3. PORTLAND -2.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-BKN OVER 221.5 (+4.3)
2. ORL-TOR OVER 220.5 (+2.2)
3. DEN-MIA OVER 244.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-CHI UNDER 242.5 (-3.0)
2. MIL-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-2.7)
3. CLE-SAS UNDER 242.5 (-2.6)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR