Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 175-218 SU and 170-219-4 ATS (43.7%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+1.5 vs MEM)
* GOLDEN STATE is 0-9 SU and ATS (0%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 at UTA)
* Favorites are on 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS surge in the NYK-LAC cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at LAC)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in a one-day rest scenario were 68-54 SU and 67-54 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* CLEVELAND is just 15-18 SU and 10-23 ATS (30.3%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
* CLEVELAND is 7-3 SU but 2-8 ATS (20%) as a double-digit home favorite this season
System/Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+12.5 at CLE)
* PHILADELPHIA is 26-9 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-CLE (o/u at 226.5)
* BROOKLYN is 22-9 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-BKN (o/u at 222.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-8 SU and 37-16-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs DEN)
* GOLDEN STATE is 0-9 SU and ATS (0%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 at UTA)
* GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 Over the total (82%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points this season
* GOLDEN STATE is 136-103 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
* UTAH is 101-75 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-UTA (o/u at 224.5)
* NEW YORK is just 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 at LAC)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(547) PHILADELPHIA at (548) CLEVELAND
* OVER the total has converted in all five h2h meetings between Philadelphia and Cleveland since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-CLE (o/u at 226.5)
(549) DENVER at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Nuggets-Thunder divisional rivalry at the Paycom Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 232.5)
(551) MEMPHIS at (552) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Grizzlies-Nets non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+1.5 vs MEM)
(553) GOLDEN STATE at (554) UTAH
* GOLDEN STATE is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 at UTA)
(555) NEW YORK at (556) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are on 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS surge in the NYK-LAC cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 186-68 SU and 148-105-1 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 140-108 SU and 142-103-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-1.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-110 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 253-212 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 344-273 (55.8%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – PHI-CLE (spread -12.5, total 226.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 175-218 SU and 170-219-4 ATS (43.7%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+1.5 vs MEM)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 395-341 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-LAC (o/u at 220.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, MEMPHIS, GOLDEN STATE, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-BKN, GSW-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – GSW-UTA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+1.7)
2. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+1.5)
3. UTAH +6.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND -12.5 (+1.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +12.5 (+0.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+0.4)
3. DENVER +6.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -6.5 (+0.8)
2. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-UTA OVER 224.5 (+3.6)
2. PHI-CLE OVER 226.5 (+2.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-BKN UNDER 222.5 (-0.6)
2. NYK-LAC UNDER 220.5 (-0.5)
3. DEN-OKC UNDER 232.5 (-0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+2.5)
2. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+1.1)
3. UTAH +6.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND -12.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CLE OVER 226.5 (+6.4)
2. GSW-UTA OVER 224.5 (+3.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-LAC UNDER 220.5 (-3.9)
2. MEM-BKN UNDER 222.5 (-1.1)
3. DEN-OKC UNDER 232.5 (-1.0)
