The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 50-61 SU and 40-69-2 ATS (36.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-11.5 vs WSH) 

* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 80-18 SU and 55-40-3 ATS (57.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at MIA) 

* SAN ANTONIO is 4-15 SU and ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 at CHI)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in an away-to-home back-to-back scenario are 25-31 SU and 21-35 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 46-37 SU and 50-31 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at DET) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 48-35 Over the total vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DET (o/u at 234.5) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 45-34 SU and 44-34 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at ORL) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 190-243 SU but 246-179-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
* CHARLOTTE is 8-32 SU and 13-26-1 ATS playing in 2 Days Rest scenario since Mar 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-8.5 at CHA) 

* MIAMI is 18-7 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 246.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 4-15 SU and ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 at CHI) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away game scenario are 15-29 SU and 17-26-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at UTA) 

* MINNESOTA is 20-6 Over the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenario since Dec 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-UTA (o/u at 233.5) 

* ATLANTA is 120-87 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-LAC (o/u at 221.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(515) LA LAKERS (7-3) at (516) CHARLOTTE (3-6)
* Underdogs are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven ofthe  LAL-CHA cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+8.5 vs LAL) 

(517) PORTLAND (5-4) at (518) ORLANDO (4-6)
* PORTLAND is 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine trips to Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at ORL) 

(519) WASHINGTON (1-9) at (520) DETROIT (8-2)
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the WSH-DET series in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at DET) 

(521) CLEVELAND (7-3) at (522) MIAMI (6-4)
* Over the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine games of the CLE-MIA set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIA (o/u at 247.5) 

(523) SAN ANTONIO (7-2) at (524) CHICAGO (6-3)
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the SAS-CHI non-conference series at Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-CHI (o/u at 236.5) 

(525) MILWAUKEE (6-4) at (526) DALLAS (3-7)
* Favorites are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the MIL-DAL series
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-2.5 at DAL) 

(527) NEW ORLEANS (2-7) at (528) PHOENIX (5-5)
* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of the Pelicans-Suns Western Conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-PHX (o/u at 225.5) 

(529) MINNESOTA (6-4) at (530) UTAH (3-6)
* MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 visits to divisional foe Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at UTA) 

(531) ATLANTA (5-5) at (532) LA CLIPPERS (3-6)
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the ATL-LAC non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 at LAC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-120 SU and 62-88-5 ATS (41.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+7.5 vs MIN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 116-96 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-181 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 302-230 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DET (spread -11.5, total 234.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 14-13 SU and 21-6 ATS (77.8%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs MIN) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 82-56 SU and 73-63-2 ATS (53.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at UTA) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 281-149 SU but just 181-236-13 ATS (43.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-11.5 at WSH) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 340-290 (54%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-MIA (o/u at 247.5), SAS-CHI (o/u at 236.5) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 96-63 (60.4%) rate since 2021, including 41-20 (67.8%) to the Over in the last 61.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-DAL (o/u at 230.5) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 67-48 SU and 69-45-1 ATS (60.5%) in their last 115 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at ORL) 

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 50-61 SU and 40-69-2 ATS (36.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-11.5 vs WSH)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 132-24 SU but 69-84-3 ATS (45.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): DETROIT (-11.5 vs WSH) 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 80-18 SU and 55-40-3 ATS (57.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at MIA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 48-12 SU and 38-22 ATS (63.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-11.5 vs WSH) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-76 SU but 60-51 ATS (54.1%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 262-312-4 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 32-136 SU and 72-90-6 ATS (44.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at DET)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, SAN ANTONIO, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CLEVELAND, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, PHOENIX ML, LA CLIPPERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-CHA, POR-ORL, MIL-DAL, NOP-PHX, ATL-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-ORL, MIN-UTA
UNDER – WSH-DET, CLE-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-ORL 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +5.5 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO +3.5 (+1.6)
3. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -2.5 (+1.5)
2. DETROIT -11.5 (+1.0)
3. PHOENIX -8.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +5.5 (+6.7)
2. MIAMI +7.5 (+6.2)
3. CHICAGO +3.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX -8.5 (+2.6)
2. MILWAUKEE -2.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-PHX OVER 225.5 (+2.6)
2. MIL-DAL OVER 229.5 (+1.8)
3. MIN-UTA OVER 233.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-MIA UNDER 246.5 (-3.4)
2. WSH-DET UNDER 234.5 (-3.2)
3. ATL-LAC UNDER 220.5 (-1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO +3.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+5.6)
2. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+2.5)
3. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+2.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-PHX OVER 225.5 (+6.6)
2. MIN-UTA OVER 233.5 (+1.9)
3. LAL-CHA OVER 230.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-MIA UNDER 246.5 (-5.8)
2. WSH-DET UNDER 234.5 (-2.6)
3. SAS-CHI UNDER 236.5 (-2.2)

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