Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 matchups between Dallas and Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at DAL)
* Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as road non-conference underdogs are 9-30 SU and 12-27 ATS (30.8%) in their last 39 regular season games.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+1.5 at ATL)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: CLE-CHA OVER 214.5 (projections have total at 220.4)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away game scenario are 16-39 SU and 18-34 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rdStraightHome game over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (+1.5 at ATL), NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 at GSW)
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario were 29-37 SU & 25-41 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10.5 vs WSH)
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario are 16-11 SU and 19-8 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons
* WASHINGTON is 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since February 2026
* WASHINGTON is 71-177 SU and 103-139 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2021
* WASHINGTON is 8-23 SU and 11-20 ATS (35.5%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
System/Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 vs WSH)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 65-33 UNDER the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game since 2021
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-DAL (o/u at 226.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 39-17 SU and 35-21 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+8.5 vs CLE)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 35-21 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CHA (o/u at 214.5)
* NBA teams playing in the 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario are 48-34 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game over the last four seasons
* ATLANTA is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%) at a home favorite of -1 to-5 points since the start of last season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ATLANTA (-1.5 vs LAL)
* GOLDEN STATE is 134-127 SU but 112-145 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 vs NOP)
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away game scenario are 8-20 SU and 9-19 ATS vs. teams playing a 4thStraightHome game over the last four seasons
* NEW ORLEANS is 25-50 SU and 26-48 ATS playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days scenario since February 2021
System/Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 at GSW)
* NEW ORLEANS is 20-8 Over the total (71.4%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games, since the start of last season
* GOLDEN STATE is 18-3 Over the total (85.7%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points since the start of last season
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-GSW (o/u at 232.5)
* PHOENIX is 10-13 SU but 16-7 ATS (69.6%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+8.5 vs SAS)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) CLEVELAND at (502) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE is 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in their last six games with Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+8.5 vs CLE)
(503) WASHINGTON at (504) DETROIT
* WASHINGTON is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+10.5 at DET)
(505) LA LAKERS at (506) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between LAL and ATL
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs LAL)
(507) MEMPHIS at (508) TORONTO
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Grizzlies-Raptors set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-TOR (o/u at 229.5)
(509) INDIANA at (510) DALLAS
* Road teams are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 matchups between Dallas and Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at DAL)
(511) DENVER at (512) HOUSTON
* DENVER is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge versus Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+9.5 at HOU)
(513) SAN ANTONIO at (514) PHOENIX
* Under the total has converted in seven of the last eight games between San Antonio and Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-PHX (o/u at 227.5)
(515) NEW ORLEANS at (516) GOLDEN STATE
* NEW ORLEANS is 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 at GSW)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 200-82 SU and 159-122-1 ATS (56.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 150-128 (54%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-236 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 373-308 (54.8%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – WSH-DET (spread DET -10.5, o/u at 217.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 322-176 SU but just 206-279-13 ATS (42.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs LAL)
Rout games can be significant
NBA teams coming off any game in which they won by 30 points or more have performed well in expected tight matchups (-4.5 to +4.5 line range) next time out, going 112-78 SU and 115-72-3 ATS (61.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 vs IND)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 440-374 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-GSW (o/u at 232.5)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that come off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 206-181 SU and 213-164-10 ATS (56.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at DAL)
High turnover games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 112-81 SU and 114-78-1 ATS (59.4%) in their last 193 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 vs IND)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 167-29 SU but 86-107-3 ATS (44.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR GOLDEN STATE vs NOP (-9.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 112-25 SU and 75-59-3 ATS (56%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as road non-conference underdogs are 9-30 SU and 12-27 ATS (30.8%) in their last 39 regular season games.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+1.5 at ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9 points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 41-10 SU but 18-33 ATS (35.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 33-18 (64.7%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 vs NOP)
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-GSW (o/u at 232.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 349-394-4 ATS (47%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at PHX), GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 vs NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #16:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 88-114-1 ATS (43.6%) in the next game, including 44-58 ATS (43.1%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at PHX)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:40 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 244-210 ATS (53.7%) over the last four seasons, good for +13 units of profit and a ROI of 2.9%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 992-908 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -6.8 units and an ROI of -0.4%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, WASHINGTON, MEMPHIS, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 168-147 ATS record (53.3%). This has netted +6.3 units and an ROI of 2%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 581-529 ATS record (52.3%), going for -0.9 units of profit and an ROI of -0.08%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHARLOTTE, DENVER, PHOENIX, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 118-157 ATS (42.9%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -54.7 units for an ROI of -19.9%.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 559-490 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +20 units of profit and an ROI of +1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 692-616 ATS record, good for 52.9%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +14.4 units of profit and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHARLOTTE, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 568-471, good for 54.7%, +50 units, and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-ATL, WSH-DET, CLE-CHA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 492-429 (53.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-HOU
UNDER – WSH-DET, CLE-CHA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 225-176 (56.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +31.4 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially, the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 355-280 (55.9%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best angle has produced +47 units of profit for +7.4%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): IND-DAL, SAS-PHX
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+3.0)
2. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+1.2)
3. DENVER +9.5 (+1.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -3.5 (+1.6)
2. DETROIT -10.5 (+1.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+2.9)
2. NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -3.5 (+7.7)
2. SAN ANTONIO -8.5 (+3.8)
3. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+3.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-DET OVER 217.5 (+2.6)
2. SAS-PHX OVER 227.5 (+1.1)
3. CLE-CHA OVER 214.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-HOU UNDER 219.5 (-4.0)
2. IND-DAL UNDER 227.5 (-2.7)
3. NOP-GSW UNDER 232.5 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+3.4)
2. DENVER +9.5 (+2.4)
3. LA LAKERS +1.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -9.5 (+1.1)
2(tie). DETROIT -10.5 (+0.8)
DALLAS -3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-CHA OVER 214.5 (+5.9)
2. NOP-GSW OVER 232.5 (+3.3)
3. SAS-PHX OVER 227.5 (+2.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-DAL UNDER 227.5 (-2.3)
2. MEM-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-1.6)
