Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, October 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 25-8-1 (75.8%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 34 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 239.5)
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 78-30 SU and 66-41-1 ATS (61.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (-5.5 at PHI), ATLANTA (-1.5 at CHI), PORTLAND (-2.5 at LAL)
* NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 94-61 (60.6%) rate since 2021, including 39-18 (68.4%) to the Over in the last 57.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-HOU (o/u at 225.5)
* Underdogs are on big 11-6 SU and 14-3 ATS surge in the last 17 of the DEN-MIN divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+5.5 vs DEN)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking top scheduling situations all season long!
* Orlando is 102-71 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-PHI (o/u at 227.5)
* ATLANTA is 117-85 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CHI (o/u at 242.5)
* NBA teams playing in A2A b2b scenario are 13-26 SU and 14-24-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+1.5 at NOP), BROOKLYN (+15.5 at HOU)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 40-30 SU and 41-28 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games last season
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 62-13 SU and 48-24-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since Apr 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at DAL)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 40-30 SU and 41-28 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games last season
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 at MIN)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 26-15 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-NOP (o/u at 233.5), PHX-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 51-36 SU but 32-53-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games last season
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 189-235 SU but 244-172-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX (+1.5 at UTA), MEMPHIS (+8.5 at GSW)
* NBA teams playing in away-to-home back-to-back scenario are 25-30 SU and 21-34 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over last two seasons
* PORTLAND is 21-25 SU but 31-13 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
System/Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 at LAL)
* NBA teams playing in away-to-home, back-to-back scenario are 20-5 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
* PORTLAND is 63-34 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-LAL (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 160-61 SU and 131-89-1 ATS (59.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-8.5 vs MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 115-79 SU and 117-74-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+1.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 78-30 SU and 66-41-1 ATS (61.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (-5.5 at PHI), ATLANTA (-1.5 at CHI), PORTLAND (-2.5 at LAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 270-48 SU but just 151-161-6 ATS (48.4%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): HOUSTON (-15.5 vs BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 225-178 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 295-226 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-HOU (spread at -15.5, total at 225.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 159-94 SU but 116-133-4 ATS (46.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 95-117 ATS (44.3%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-8.5 vs MEM)
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at an 85-53-1 (61.6%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-DAL (o/u at 226.5), POR-LAL (o/u at 226.5)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 128-132 SU but 134-111-5 ATS (54.7%), including 93-60-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs BOS), TORONTO (+5.5 at SAS)
Early-season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 25-8-1 (75.8%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 34 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 239.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 326-275 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-DET (o/u at 231.5), TOR-SAS (o/u at 232.5), OKC-DAL (o/u at 226.5), DEN-MIN (o/u at 229.5), MEM-GSW (o/u at 239.5), POR-LAL (o/u at 226.5)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 94-61 (60.6%) rate since 2021, including 39-18 (68.4%) to the Over in the last 57.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-HOU (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ORLANDO, ATLANTA, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, DENVER, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, ATLANTA, DENVER, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher. However, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): DENVER
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, UTAH ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – ATL-CHI
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DETROIT +2.5 (+2.3)
BOSTON +1.5 (+2.3)
3. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH -1.5 (+1.9)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.6)
3. HOUSTON -15.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +8.5 (+5.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 (+4.9)
3. BOSTON +1.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -4.5 (+2.0)
2. UTAH -1.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-UTA OVER 231.5 (+5.2)
2. TOR-SAS OVER 232.5 (+1.8)
3. CLE-DET OVER 231.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-CHI UNDER 242.5 (-3.4)
2. ORL-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-2.4)
3. BOS-NOP UNDER 233.5 (-2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +2.5 (+3.2)
2. BOSTON +1.5 (+1.9)
3. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH -1.5 (+0.9)
2. HOUSTON -15.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-UTA OVER 231.5 (+4.0)
2. TOR-SAS OVER 232.5 (+2.5)
3. OKC-DAL OVER 226.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-CHI UNDER 242.5 (-5.7)
2. ORL-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-5.5)
3. BOS-NOP UNDER 233.5 (-4.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(519) CLEVELAND at (520) DETROIT
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the CLE-DET divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 231.5)
(521) ORLANDO at (522) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams have won five straight ATS in the Magic-76ers series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 vs ORL)
(523) ATLANTA at (524) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the ATL-CHI set at Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs ATL)
(525) BROOKLYN at (526) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Nets-Rockets non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-HOU (o/u at 225.5)
(527) BOSTON at (528) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS in the last four games with Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs BOS)
(529) TORONTO at (530) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of TOR-SAS non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs TOR)
(531) OKLAHOMA CITY at (532) DALLAS
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the OKC-DAL series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 vs OKC)
(533) PHOENIX at (534) UTAH
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the PHX-UTA set, including four straight Overs at Utah
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
(535) DENVER at (536) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are on a big 11-6 SU and 14-3 ATS surge in the last 17 of the DEN-MIN divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+5.5 vs DEN)
(537) MEMPHIS at (538) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total has converted in four straight meetings between Memphis and Golden State in the Bay Area
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 239.5)
(539) PORTLAND at (540) LA LAKERS
* Favorites are on an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS run in the last eight of the POR-LAL series
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-2.5 at LAL)
