Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, December 9 and Wednesday, December 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In Eastern Conference Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of five points or less have gone 14-38 SU and 17-33-2 ATS (34%) since late April 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+4.5 vs NYK)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario were 13-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 169-65 SU and 138-95-1 ATS (59.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs SAS)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* MIAMI is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since June 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at ORL)
* ORLANDO is 108-79 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ORL (o/u at 235.5)
* TORONTO is 19-14 SU and 19-13 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+4.5 vs NYK)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 43-16 SU and 35-21 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games over the last four seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 77-38 SU and 67-44-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
* PHOENIX is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS playing on the road in 3rd in 8+ Days games since February 2023
* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 198-255 SU but 255-190-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
Systems/Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest scenario are 128-72 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in the 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 82-57 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario were 35-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in the 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 17-9 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games last season
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario were 13-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games last season
Systems Match: 3 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-17 SU and 5-18 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 198-255 SU but 255-190-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at LAL)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario were 35-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-LAL (o/u at 234.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all four quarterfinal games:
Tuesday
(569) MIAMI at (570) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Miami-Orlando divisional series at the Kia Center
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at ORL)
(571) NEW YORK at (572) TORONTO
* Favorites are on 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS run in Knicks-Raptors divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 at TOR)
* OVER the total is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Scotiabank Arena as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-TOR (o/u at 226.5)
Wednesday
(501) PHOENIX at (502) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OVER the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of Suns-Thunder series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
(503) SAN ANTONIO at (504) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 10-2-1 in the last 13 of the Spurs-Lakers series in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-LAL (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 169-65 SU and 138-95-1 ATS (59.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 43-13 Over (76.8%) surge in the last 56 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-TOR (spread +4.5, total 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8: Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-187 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 322-241 (57.2%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – PHX-OKC (spread -15.5, total 225.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of five points or less have gone 14-38 SU and 17-33-2 ATS (34%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+4.5 vs NYK)
NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 164-72 SU and 136-96-4 ATS (58.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (*if they become favored at ORL, +1.5 currently*)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 317-329 SU and 291-347-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field-goal percentage in any given game have performed well in the next game as well, going 168-109 SU and 159-111-7 ATS (58.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 143-25 SU BUT 72-93-3 ATS (43.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 31-9 SU but 14-26 ATS (35%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 27-13 (67.5%) in these games.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 70-94-1 ATS (42.3%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop-off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ORL, NYK-TOR
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI +1.5 (+1.1)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+1.7)
2. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.5)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.1)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +1.5 (+4.2)
2. TORONTO +4.5 (+0.3)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+1.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.6)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-LAL OVER 234.5 (+4.5)
2. MIA-ORL OVER 234.5 (+2.1)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-TOR UNDER 226.5 (-0.6)
2. PHX-OKC UNDER 225.5 (-0.4)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI +1.5 (+0.1)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -4.5 (+2.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+2.0)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+1.1)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-LAL OVER 234.5 (+7.1)
2. MIA-ORL OVER 234.5 (+2.6)
3. PHX-OKC OVER 225.5 (+1.0)
