Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 54-64 SU and 42-74-2 ATS (36.2%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+1.5 vs SAS)
* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 91-37 SU and 78-49-1 ATS (61.4%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at UTA)
* Over the total has converted in all nine meetings between Miami and Indiana since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-IND (o/u at 234.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenarios are 17-31 SU and 18-29-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at DET)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 78-52 SU but 56-72-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games since the start of last season
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-2.5 vs DAL)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 47-23 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-DET (o/u at 214.5), DAL-CHI (o/u at 233.5)
* BOSTON is 11-2 Over the total playing in the back-to-back home scenario since Apr 2021
* NBA teams playing on roadin 2 Days Rest scenario are 21-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in SAS-BOS (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 82-58 SU and 82-57-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6.5 at IND)
* CHARLOTTE is 145-103 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
* UTAH is 94-64 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) MINNESOTA at (502) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the Twolves-Cavs series at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 239.5)
(503) MIAMI at (504) INDIANA
* Over the total has converted in all nine meetings between Miami and Indiana since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-IND (o/u at 234.5)
(505) LA CLIPPERS at (506) DETROIT
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the LAC-DET non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 vs LAC)
(507) DALLAS at (508) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 4-0 in the last four of the Mavs-Bulls set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-CHI (o/u at 233.5)
(509) SAN ANTONIO at (510) BOSTON
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the SAS-BOS non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+1.5 vs SAS)
(511) CHARLOTTE at (512) UTAH
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Hornets-Jazz series in Salt Lake City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-95 SU and 133-90-3 ATS (59.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 91-37 SU and 78-49-1 ATS (61.4%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at UTA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 168-78 SU and 138-104-4 ATS (57%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at UTA)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 169-206 SU and 164-207-4 ATS (44.2%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+4.5 vs CHA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 324-338 SU and 299-355-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+4.5 at CLE), LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 at DET), BOSTON (+1.5 vs SAS)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 188-200 SU and 176-202-10 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+4.5 at CLE)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 188-161 SU and 193-146-10 ATS (56.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-4.5 vs LAC), CHICAGO (-2.5 vs DAL)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 83-58 SU and 86-54-1 ATS (61.4%) in their L141 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+2.5 at CHI)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 54-64 SU and 42-74-2 ATS (36.2%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+1.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, CHICAGO ML, UTAH ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-CLE, MIA-IND, CHA-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UNDER – MIN-CLE, MIA-IND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – LAC-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-CLE, CHA-UTA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON +1.5 (+3.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -3.5 (+3.1)
2. CHARLOTTE -4.5 (+1.7)
3. MIAMI -6.5 (+1.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.5)
2. BOSTON +1.5 (+1.3)
3. DALLAS +2.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -3.5 (+3.3)
2. DETROIT -4.5 (+2.5)
3. CHARLOTTE -4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DET OVER 214.5 (+3.3)
2. DAL-CHI OVER 233.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-CLE UNDER 239.5 (-3.8)
2. SAS-BOS UNDER 231.5 (-2.0)
3. MIA-IND UNDER 234.5 (-1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +1.5 (+3.8)
2. DALLAS +2.5 (+1.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -3.5 (+2.9)
2. CHARLOTTE -4.5 (+1.6)
3. MIAMI -6.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-DET OVER 214.5 (+8.4)
2. MIA-IND OVER 234.5 (+4.7)
3. CHA-UTA OVER 239.5 (+2.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-CLE UNDER 239.5 (-2.7)
