The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs/road teams are on a current 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS surge in the ATL-TOR set
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3.5 at TOR) 

* PORTLAND is 27-30 SU but 38-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+8.5 at SAS) 

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 103-66-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 at CHI)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* MIAMI is 22-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-MIA (o/u at 238.5) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 16-30 SU and 18-27-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 at TOR) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 23-44 SU and 23-43-1 ATS vs. teams in 4thStraightHome games over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+3.5 at TOR), CHARLOTTE (+1.5 at CHI) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 55-42 SU and 52-44 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at NYK) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 19-6 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 232.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 87-61 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-LAC (o/u at 219.5) 

* HOUSTON is 119-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-DAL (o/u at 226.5)

* PORTLAND is 27-30 SU but 38-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 35-32 SU and 30-37 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+8.5 at SAS) 

* PORTLAND is 70-38 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
* NBA teams playing in A2H b2b scenario are 21-9 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-SAS (o/u at 237.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 13-16 SU and 7-21-1 ATS playing at home in a 3rd in 4 Days game since November 2023
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 55-42 SU and 52-44 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 at GSW)

* UTAH is 92-63 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-GSW (o/u at 243.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(549) MINNESOTA at (550) MIAMI
* Under the total is 5-2 in the MIN-MIA non-conference series since the start of 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-MIA (o/u at 238.5)

(551) ATLANTA at (552) TORONTO
* Underdogs/road teams are on a current 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS surge in the ATL-TOR set
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3.5 at TOR) 

(553) PHILADELPHIA at (554) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the 76ers-Knicks divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at NYK) 

(555) PORTLAND at (556) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in last seven of the POR-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 vs POR) 

(557) CHARLOTTE at (558) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine games hosting Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-1.5 vs CHA) 

(559) HOUSTON at (560) DALLAS
* Home teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the Rockets-Mavs divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 vs HOU) 

(561) UTAH at (562) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams were 3-0 SU and ATS in the UTA-GSW series in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 vs UTA) 

(563) BOSTON at (564) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Celtics-Clippers series in LA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-LAC (o/u at 219.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 42-129 SU and 72-94-5 ATS (43.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+8.5 vs HOU)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-101 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 235-194 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-252 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – UTA-GSW (spread -12.5, total 242.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 91-37 SU and 77-58-3 ATS (57%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHI) 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 43-10 SU and 34-19 ATS (64.2%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 at DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 103-66-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 at CHI) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 168-203 SU and 163-204-4 ATS (44.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+2.5 vs MIN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 89-20 SU and 60-46-3 ATS (56.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 at DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 36-84 SU but 65-55 ATS (54.2%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 vs HOU)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, UTAH, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-MIA, POR-SAS, CHA-CHI, HOU-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-MIA, CHA-CHI
UNDER – POR-SAS, UTA-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BOS-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-MIA, CHA-CHI

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +8.5 (+1.7)
2. BOSTON +1.5 (+1.6)
3. CHARLOTTE +1.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+2.6)
2. NEW YORK -3.5 (+0.5)
3. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.3)
2. UTAH +12.5 (+0.9)
3. ATLANTA +3.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -8.5 (+1.5)
2. LA CLIPPERS -1.5 (+1.0)
3. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-MIA OVER 238.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-SAS UNDER 237.5 (-5.1)
2. ATL-TOR UNDER 236.5 (-3.8)
2. CHA-CHI UNDER 238.5 (-2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +1.5 (+3.7)
2(tie). PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.2)
PORTLAND +8.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+5.8)
2. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.7)
3. TORONTO -3.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CHI OVER 238.5 (+4.8)
2. HOU-DAL OVER 226.5 (+2.3)
3. MIN-MIA OVER 238.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-SAS UNDER 237.5 (-5.2)
2. ATL-TOR UNDER 236.5 (-3.9)
3. UTA-GSW UNDER 243.5 (-2.0)

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