The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 of the Kings-Hawks series at State Farm Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-14.5 vs SAC) 

* Teams off a big loss (15+ points) as an underdog have done well when favored by 2-points or more in the back-to-back away situation, going 67-32-2 ATS (67.7%) in the last 101 instances.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at MEM) 

* NBA teams playing on home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 23-14 SU and 25-11-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-17.5 vs UTA) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 62-55 SU and 65-50 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+14.5 at ATL) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 63-54 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-ATL (o/u at 237.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 57-34 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MIL (o/u at 225.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 157-112 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHA (o/u at 233.5) 

* DETROIT is 11-2 SU and ATS (84.6%) as an underdog this season
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 227-294 SU but 288-225-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN) 

* PHOENIX is 13-2 SU and ATS (86.7%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
* NBA teams playing on home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 23-14 SU and 25-11-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last four seasons
* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away scenario are 32-48 SU and 31-48-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
Systems/Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-17.5 vs UTA)

* UTAH is 21-8 UNDER the total playing in the back-to-back away games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 229.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) MILWAUKEE
* Home teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the SAS-MIL  non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+18.5 vs SAS) 

(529) PHILADELPHIA at (530) CHARLOTTE
* Favorites are on runs of 10-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the 76ers-Hornets  series at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-5.5 vs PHI) 

(531) SACRAMENTO at (532) ATLANTA
* Favorites are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 of the Kings-Hawks series at State Farm Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-14.5 vs SAC) 

(533) DETROIT at (534) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings between Detroit and Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DET) 

(535) CHICAGO at (536) MEMPHIS
* Favorites are 12-1 SU and ATS in the last 13 of the CHI-MEM  non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at MEM)

(537) UTAH at (538) PHOENIX
* Favorites have won 12 straight SU and six of the last seven ATS in the Jazz-Suns series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-17.5 vs UTA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 141-111 SU and 143-106-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at MEM) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-116 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 270-224 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 350-281 (55.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-MIL (spread +18.5, total 225.5), SAC-ATL (spread -14.5, total 237.5), UTA-PHX (spread -17.5, total 229.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 178-221 SU and 174-221-4 ATS (44.1%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs DET) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 400-350 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 229.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 352-363 SU and 324-383-8 ATS (45.8%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 205-218 SU and 195-218-10 ATS (47.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 at CHA) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 113-77 (59.5%) rate since 2021, including 58-34 (63%) to the Over in the last 92.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-ATL (o/u at 237.5), CHI-MEM (o/u at 244.5) 

Road favorites after previous night blowout
Teams off a big loss (15+ points) as an underdog have done well when favored by 2 points or more in the back-to-back away situation, going 67-32-2 ATS (67.7%) in the last 101 instances.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 at MEM) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 101-24 SU and 69-53-3 ATS (56.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 at MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 142-107-2 (57%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 229.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 120-141 SU but 147-112-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+3.5 vs CHI), UTAH (+17.5 at PHX) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 329-375-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 at MIL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 7:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, CHARLOTTE ML, ATLANTA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-MIN, SAC-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – CHI-MEM

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS +3.5 (1.1)

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN ANTONIO -18.5 (2.4) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (1.1), MEMPHIS +3.5 (3.8) 

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN ANTONIO -18.5 (1.7) 

Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO-MEMPHIS OVER 245.5 (1.7) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN ANTONIO-MILWAUKEE UNDER 228.5 (-1.8), DETROIT-MINNESOTA UNDER 223.5 (-3.8) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS +3.5 (1.5), PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN ANTONIO -18.5 (1.6), PHOENIX -16.5 (1.4) 

Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHICAGO-MEMPHIS OVER 245.5 (1.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN ANTONIO-MILWAUKEE UNDER 228.5 (-4.4), DETROIT-MINNESOTA UNDER 223.5 (-3.9), PHILADELPHIA-CHARLOTTE UNDER 232.5 (-2.7)

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