The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 8-33 SU and 13-27-1 ATS (32.5%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DEN) 

* MILWAUKEE is 19-2 OVER the total playing at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan ’25
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIL (o/u at 223.5) 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 51-61 SU and 40-70-2 ATS (36.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.

System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1.5 vs MEM)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on ROAD in OneDayRest scenario are 192-247 SU but 248-183-8 ATS vs. teams in 2DaysRest games over the last four easons

* CHARLOTTE is 8-33 SU and 13-27-1 ATS playing in 2 Days Rest scenario since Mar ’22
System/Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at CHA) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 32-17 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 76-52 SU and 75-52-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 at MIL) 

* MILWAUKEE is 19-2 OVER the total playing at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan ’25
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIL (o/u at 223.5) 

* ORLANDO is 105-77 UNDER the total playing in ALL One Day Rest games since Mar ’22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-ORL (o/u at 230.5)

* NBA teams playing on ROAD in OneDayRest scenario were 49-37 SU and 46-39 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+1.5 at DAL) 

* NBA teams playing on ROAD in OneDayRest scenario are 50-36 OVER the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* ATLANTA is 123-88 OVER the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov ’21
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NOP (o/u at 230.5) 

* NBA teams playing on ROAD in OneDayRest scenario are 48-38 SU and 52-32 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-8.5 at NOP), SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DEN) 

* NBA teams playing on ROAD in One Day Rest scenario are 50-36 OVER the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons

* DENVER is 78-51 OVER the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Mar ’21
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-DEN (o/u at 236.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) LA CLIPPERS at (546) CHARLOTTE
* HOME TEAMS have covered five of the last six between LAC and CHA
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+1.5 vs LAC) 

(547) NEW YORK at (548) ORLANDO
* UNDER the total is 8-2 in Knicks-Magic h2h series at Orlando since the ’19-’20 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-ORL (o/u at 230.5) 

(549) ATLANTA at (550) NEW ORLEANS
* ATLANTA is 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-8.5 at NOP) 

(551) WASHINGTON at (552) CHICAGO
* UNDER the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the WSH-CHI series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHI (o/u at 243.5) 

(553) DETROIT at (554) MILWAUKEE
* OVER the total is 9-1 in the DET-MIL divisional rivalry since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MIL (o/u at 223.5) 

(555) MEMPHIS at (556) DALLAS
* FAVORITES are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of Grizzlies-Spurs divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 vs MEM) 

(557) SACRAMENTO at (558) DENVER
* ROAD TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the SAC-DEN series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DEN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 121-85 SU and 124-79-3 ATS (61.1%) surge. (LAC, MEM 11/22)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at CHA), MEMPHIS (+1.5 at DAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 86-35 SU and 73-47-1 ATS (60.8%).
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 120-97 (55.3%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 309-234 (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-CHI (spread -12.5, total 243.5), SAC-DEN (spread -10.5, total 236.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Central divisional games, favorites of <= 7.5 points playing on two days rest or more are 23-6 SU and 22-7 ATS (75.9%), including 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS at HOME, since the start of the 2020-21 season. (DET 11/22?)
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DETROIT at MIL (-8.5 currently) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 166-98 SU but 122-138-4 ATS (46.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 100-122 ATS (45%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-8.5 at NOP), CHICAGO (-12.5 vs WSH)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 94-62-1 ATS (60.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 vs ATL) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 285-151 SU but just 184-239-13 ATS (43.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1.5 vs MEM) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 311-241 SU but 245-292-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): ORLANDO (-1.5 vs NYK)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 347-302 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-ORL (o/u at 230.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 304-320 SU and 280-336-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-8.5 at NOP), ORLANDO (-1.5 vs NYK) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 175-191 SU and 164-192-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-8.5 at NOP)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going OVER the total at a 97-63 (60.6%) rate since 2021, including 42-20 (67.7%) to the OVER in the last 62.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-CHI (o/u at 243.5) 

NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 21-73 SU and 40-54 ATS (42.6%) in their last 94 tries.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DEN) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 73-54 SU and 75-51-1 ATS (59.5%) in their last 127 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at CHA), DALLAS (-1.5 vs MEM)

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 51-61 SU and 40-70-2 ATS (36.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-1.5 vs MEM)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 84-19 SU and 57-43-3 ATS (57%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8.5 at MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 8-33 SU and 13-27-1 ATS (32.5%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DEN)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-92 SU but 105-75-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-8.5 at NOP)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 268-317-4 ATS (45.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of
7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 32-143 SU and 75-94-6 ATS (44.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 vs ATL), WASHINGTON (+12.5 at CHI), DETROIT (-8.5 at MIL), SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 65-88-1 ATS (42.5%) in the next game, including 29-44 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-8.5 at MIL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, ATLANTA, DETROIT, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a HOME side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and a ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the UNDER in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking OVERS. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and a ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-CHI, DET-MIL, MEM-DAL, SAC-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-DAL

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+3.2)
2. NEW YORK +1.5 (+1.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +1.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -10.5 (+1.9)
2. DALLAS -1.5 (+0.6)
3. CHICAGO -12.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+4.5)
2. CHARLOTTE +1.5 (+4.1)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+3.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -8.5 (+1.6)
2. ORLANDO -1.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-MIL OVER 223.5 (+3.2)
2. ATL-NOP OVER 230.5 (+1.8)
3. NYK-ORL OVER 230.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-CHA UNDER 227.5 (-1.6)
2. WSH-CHI UNDER 243.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+2.8)
2. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+1.1)
3. NEW YORK +1.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -12.5 (+2.2)
2. DENVER -10.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-MIL OVER 223.5 (+6.6)
2. WSH-CHI OVER 243.5 (+5.4)
3. ATL-NOP OVER 230.5 (+4.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-5.2)
2. NYK-ORL UNDER 230.5 (-4.5)
3. LAC-CHA UNDER 227.5 (-0.2)

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