Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS (78.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs BKN)
* Underdogs are on an extended 13-2 ATS run in the DET-MIA series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+3.5 at MIA)
* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 313-241 SU but 247-292-15 ATS (45.8%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-73-1 ATS (37.1%).
System Match (FADE ATS): INDIANA (+3.5 vs CHI)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 20-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-CHA (o/u at 226.5)
* DALLAS is 15-5 Over the total playing on the road in the back-to-back away game scenario since Apr 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-LAC (o/u at 223.5)
* INDIANA is 12-17 SU and 6-22-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 vs CHI)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) BOSTON at (502) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is on a 1-4 SU but 4-0-1 ATS run versus Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs BOS)
(503) TORONTO at (504) CHARLOTTE
* Over the total is 4-1 in the Raptors-Hornets series at Charlotte since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CHA (o/u at 226.5)
(505) CHICAGO at (506) INDIANA
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the CHI-IND divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-IND (o/u at 242.5)
(507) DETROIT at (508) MIAMI
* Underdogs are on an extended 13-2 ATS run in the DET-MIA series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+3.5 at MIA)
(509) BROOKLYN at (510) MILWAUKEE
* BROOKLYN is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+11.5 at MIL)
(511) NEW ORLEANS at (512) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total is 5-2 in the Pelicans-Warriors series at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-GSW (o/u at 225.5)
(513) DENVER at (514) PHOENIX
* Road teams are 6-3 ATS in the last nine of the DEN-PHX series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3.5 at PHX)
(515) DALLAS at (516) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven of the DAL-LAC series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at DAL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-125 SU and 64-91-5 ATS (41.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 vs CHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-98 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 313-237 (56.9%).
System Match (PLAY): BKN-MIL (spread -11.5, total 220.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs on a back-to-back situation are 8-31 SU and 15-23-1 ATS (39.5%) since January 2021.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+3.5 vs CHI)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performance in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for each team. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 170-100 SU but 125-141-4 ATS (47%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-3.5 at PHX)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 161-72 SU and 133-96-4 ATS (58.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3.5 at PHX)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 286-153 SU but just 185-241-13 ATS (43.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-9.5 at CHA), MIAMI (-3.5 vs DET)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 313-241 SU but 247-292-15 ATS (45.8%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-73-1 ATS (37.1%).
System Match (FADE ATS): INDIANA (+3.5 vs CHI)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 157-191 SU and 150-194-4 ATS (43.6%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+7.5 at MIN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 351-306 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIN (o/u at 227.5)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 97-64 (60.2%) rate since 2021, including 42-21 (66.7%) to the Over in the last 63.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-MIL (o/u at 220.5)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 75-55 SU and 77-52-1 ATS (59.7%) in their last 130 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+3.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 86-19 SU and 58-44-3 ATS (56.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-9.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 28-9 SU but 12-25 ATS (32.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 25-12 (67.6%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-9.5 at CHA)
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CHA (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS (78.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 92-98 SU but 109-79-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 276-322-4 ATS (46.2%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-9.5 at CHA), MILWAUKEE (-11.5 vs BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 67-92-1 ATS (42.1%) in the next game, including 30-45 ATS (40%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-9.5 at CHA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
- Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
- Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
- Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
- Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, TORONTO, BROOKLYN, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, BROOKLYN, GOLDEN STATE, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-IND, BKN-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – DET-MIA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHARLOTTE +9.5 (+1.9)
DALLAS +7.5 (+1.9)
3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -11.5 (+4.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE -8.5 (+3.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+2.8)
2. PHOENIX +3.5 (+2.7)
3. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -9.5 (+1.4)
2. CHICAGO -3.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-GSW OVER 225.5 (+3.2)
2. TOR-CHA OVER 226.5 (+1.6)
3. CHI-IND OVER 242.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIL UNDER 220.5 (-3.7)
2. DET-MIA UNDER 239.5 (-1.6)
3. DAL-LAC UNDER 223.5 (-0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +9.5 (+3.5)
2. DETROIT +3.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -8.5 (+5.4)
2. MILWAUKEE -11.5 (+4.5)
3. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-GSW OVER 225.5 (+4.1)
2. CHI-IND OVER 242.5 (+3.0)
3. DAL-LAC OVER 223.5 (+1.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIL UNDER 220.5 (-4.1)
2. BOS-MIN UNDER 227.5 (-1.6)
