Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NBA Streak Betting System #6: Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 43-13 SU and 38-16-2 ATS (70.4%) in their last 56 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at WSH)
* NBA teams playing in an away-to-home back-to-back scenario are 20-6 Under the total vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two Seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-CLE (o/u at 239.5)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 164-107 SU and 156-108-7 ATS (59.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5.5 at PHI)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* WASHINGTON is 4-35 SU and 12-27 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since Apr 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+4.5 vs DAL)
* DALLAS is 15-4 Over the total playing on the road in the away-to-away back-to-back scenario since Apr 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-WSH (o/u at 229.5)
* NBA teams playing in away-to-away back-to-back scenario are 15-28 SU and 17-25-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+5.5 at PHI)
* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 18-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* DENVER is 77-50 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Mar 2021
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in IND-DEN (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing in away-to-home back-to-back scenario are 20-6 Under the total vs. teams in away-to-away back-to-back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-CLE (o/u at 239.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games:
(559) DALLAS (2-7) at (560) WASHINGTON (1-8)
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the DAL-WSH non-conference series at Washington
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-WSH (o/u at 229.5)
(561) TORONTO (5-4) at (562) PHILADELPHIA (5-3)
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the TOR-PHI divisional series at Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 at TOR)
(563) PORTLAND (5-3) at (564) MIAMI (5-4)
* Favorites are 12-3 ATS in the POR-MIA set since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-3.5 at MIA)
(565) CHICAGO (6-2) at (566) CLEVELAND (6-3)
* CLEVELAND is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine games when hosting Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs CHI)
(567) LA LAKERS (7-2) at (568) ATLANTA (4-5)
* LA LAKERS is 5-1 ATS in the last six games with non-conference foe Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at ATL)
(571) INDIANA (1-7) at (572) DENVER (6-2)
* Road teams are 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the Pacers-Nuggets non-conference series since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+11.5 at DEN)
(573) PHOENIX (4-5) at (574) LA CLIPPERS (3-5)
* Over the total is 5-0 in the last five of the Suns-Clippers divisional rivalry in LA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 165-62 SU and 136-90-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs CHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 118-81 SU and 120-76-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 84-33 SU and 71-45-1 ATS (61.2%).
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 116-94 (55.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-180 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 302-229 (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-DEN (spread -11.5, total 236.5)
UNDER – NOP-SAS (spread -10.5, total 224.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 85-31 SU and 71-52-3 ATS (57.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-5.5 vs TOR)
Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 21-13 Over (61.8%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-CLE (o/u at 239.5)
Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs on a back-to-back situation are 8-30 SU and 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%) since January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+8.5 at CLE)
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 37-8 SU & 31-14 ATS (68.9%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 vs NOP)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 258-138 SU but 185-203-8 ATS (47.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs CHI)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 81-56 SU and 73-62-2 ATS (54.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs CHI)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 306-238 SU but 243-286-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-71-1 ATS (37.7%).
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-8.5 vs CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 339-290 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-ATL (o/u at 231.5)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 164-107 SU and 156-108-7 ATS (59.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5.5 at PHI)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 95-62 (60.5%) rate since 2021, including 40-19 (67.8%) to the Over in the last 59.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DAL-WSH (o/u at 228.5), POR-MIA (o/u at 240.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 48-11 SU and 38-21 ATS (64.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (*if they fall into this line range at Atlanta, -3.5 currently)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 43-13 SU and 38-16-2 ATS (70.4%) in their last 56 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 262-311-4 ATS (45.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+4.5 vs DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority NUMBER OF bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, PORTLAND, LA LAKERS, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, SAN ANTONIO, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, PORTLAND, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, CLEVELAND ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DENVER ML, LA CLIPPERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-WSH, POR-MIA, LAL-ATL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +3.5 (+5.3)
2. TORONTO +5.5 (+2.8)
3. MIAMI +3.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -10.5 (+5.5)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+3.1)
3. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +5.5 (+7.3)
2. MIAMI +3.5 (+6.1)
3. CHICAGO +8.5 (+5.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -10.5 (+5.8)
2. DALLAS -4.5 (+0.6)
3. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MIA OVER 240.5 (+3.6)
2. IND-DEN OVER 235.5 (+0.6)
3. NOP-SAS OVER 224.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-WSH UNDER 229.5 (-1.4)
2. TOR-PHI UNDER 236.5 (-0.7)
3. PHX-LAC UNDER 227.5 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +3.5 (+3.9)
2. MIAMI +3.5 (+2.0)
3. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -10.5 (+5.5)
2. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+4.5)
3. DENVER -12.5 (+3.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-SAS OVER 224.5 (+3.6)
2. DAL-WSH OVER 229.5 (+3.4)
3. TOR-PHI OVER 236.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MIA UNDER 240.5 (-2.2)
2. IND-DEN UNDER 235.5 (-1.0)
3. PHX-LAC UNDER 227.5 (-0.4)
